Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 picks, predictions and player props

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The Boston Celtics will look to save off elimination for the second straight game when they host the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Final on Thursday, May 25th. Tip off is 8:30 pm ET at TD Garden.

Oddsmakers have instilled Joe Mazzulla’s team as 8-point favorites over the Heat, implying there is a 75% chance that Jayson Tatum and company extend this series to Game 6.

Let’s take a look at the Miami vs Boston odds as we make our Game 5 prediction and offer some player props to target.

Odds as of May 24 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Use the FanDuel promo code to make a wager on Thursday’s game.

The Celtics are the favorites to win the game, with a moneyline of -300, meaning a bet of $300 would yield a $100 profit if Boston wins. On the other hand, the Heat are the underdogs, with a moneyline of +245, implying a $100 bet would return a $245 profit if Miami pulls off a victory.

The point spread is set at -8 for Boston, indicating that they are expected to win by more than eight points. If they win by 8 points or more, bets on Boston would win. Conversely, Miami is at +8, meaning if they lose by 8 points or less or win the game outright, bets on Miami would win.

Miami has been impressive lately, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games and 4-1 Straight Up in their last five games. This indicates they’re not only winning but also often outperforming the expected spread set by bookmakers. The head-to-head trends are particularly compelling, with Miami boasting a 5-1 record both ATS and SU in their last six games against Boston. This suggests that Miami has had Boston’s number recently.

An additional noteworthy point is that the total has consistently gone OVER in Miami’s recent games, both overall and against Boston. If these trends continue, betting on a high-scoring game could be profitable. The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami’s last 11 games on the road and in all of their last five games when playing on the road against Boston.

Turning to Boston’s trends, it’s clear that they have had some difficulty covering the spread against Southeast Division teams, including Miami, with a record of 2-4 ATS. Another significant point is Boston’s relatively inconsistent record when playing as the favorite, with a 2-4 ATS in their last six games in that situation.

However, Boston shows a strong trend on Thursdays, especially when playing at home, with an 8-1 SU in their last nine games played on this day and a 6-2 SU in their last eight Thursday home games. With Game 5 falling oo fall on a Thursday and in Boston, this might be a trend to consider.

Interestingly, similar to Miami, the total has gone OVER in many of Boston’s recent games. This includes matches against Miami and particularly when playing at home against the Heat, indicating a likelihood of high-scoring games between these two teams. The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston’s last 15 games, and in 5 of their last 7 contests against Miami.

Can Boston deliver another consistent full-game performance to keep their NBA Championship dreams alive? No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit, but Boston should have some momentum playing in front of their home fans.

What’s encouraging for Boston is that their shooting percentage improved in Game 3 after dipping well below their season average in the opening three contests of the series. The Celtics shot an impressive 40% from three in Game 4 after shooting just 29.2% from behind the arc in the first three games.

On the Miami side, however, the Heat might be coming back down to earth. Miami had the fourth-worst three-point percentage before the playoffs yet was somehow shooting 47.8% heading into Game 4. They only went 8-of-32 from deep Tuesday, an underwhelming 25%.

Boston’s Jayson Tatum led by example last game, putting up 33 points as the Heat carved up the Miami defense. The key for the Celtics, however, will be continuing the strong defensive play that saw them hold Miami star forward Jimmy Butler to only five points in the fourth quarter just as he looked ready to take over the game.

With Boston looking more like the team that won the second-most games during the regular season instead of the team that dropped three consecutive playoff contests, the value is on them staying hot at home. Boston was an outstanding 32-9 at home during the regular season, including a 28-22 ATS mark.

Prediction: Celtics -8 (-110)

When it comes to Heat vs Celtics player props for Game 5, there is one prop from each side that we are keying in on. For Miami, Grant Williams’ player prop point over/under for Game 5 is several points lower than our projected number. FanDuel Sportsbook is listing him at 6.5 projected points.

Williams has averaged 11.6 points per game against Boston in the NBA Playoffs, including putting up 14 in Game 4. The 24-year-old should see more minutes Wednesday with Gabe Vincent questionable to play due to a sprained ankle. William has also played great on the road this season, averaging 8.7 points per contest.

For our Celtics player props, we’re targeting a unique prop pertaining to Al Horford. The veteran had one of his better postseason outings in Game 4, grabbing seven rebounds and recording 12 points. With Boston’s backs up against the wall, we expect Horford to deliver another inspiring performance.

FanDuel is listing Horford in the Game 5 NBA player props at 15.5 for points + rebounds + assists. This can be found under the “player combos” section. Horford has gone over this number in four of his past six postseason games, and also averaged 19 Pts+Ast+Reb during the regular season.

Picks: Grant Williams Over 6.5 Points, Al Horford Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

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