Celtics vs. Heat odds, prediction: 2023 NBA Eastern Conference ...

The Miami Heat look to take an even more commanding lead in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals on Sunday evening. Led by Jimmy Butler, the Heat won back-to-back games at TD Garden against the Boston Celtics, taking a 2-0 lead. Game 3 shifts to Kaseya Center in Miami, with the Heat aiming to continue their recent stellar play. The Celtics bring a clean injury report, while Miami continues to operate without Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee).

Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Celtics as 4.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -4.5Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 214 pointsCeltics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -178, Heat +150BOS: The Celtics are 26-21 against the spread in road gamesMIA: The Heat are 19-27-2 against the spread in home gamesCeltics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Celtics can cover

Boston's offense remains potent over a large sample size. The Celtics are scoring almost 1.18 points per possession in the playoffs after finishing No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season. Boston leads the postseason with 60.6% true shooting, including 48.8% from the field and 38.6% from 3-point range. The Celtics are also putting pressure on the rim against the Heat, averaging 26.5 free throw attempts and 55.0 points in the paint per game in the series. Boston is averaging almost twice as many assists (24.7 per game) as turnovers (12.4 per game) during the playoff run. 

On defense, Boston was a top-five team in the NBA in defensive efficiency, defensive rebound rate, assist prevention, opponent shooting, and free throw prevention during the regular season. The Celtics are still performing at solid levels in the playoffs, especially when it comes to allowing only 42.1 points in the paint, 19.3 free throw attempts, and 22.5 assists per game to opponents. Boston also has a stellar road record, including a 4-2 mark in playoff games away from TD Garden. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami's defense is tremendous, with Erik Spoelstra serving as the architect of the unit from the bench. The Heat posted top-tier metrics during the regular season, including top-five marks in free throw prevention, defensive rebound rate, turnover creation, fast break points allowed, and points allowed in the paint. During the playoffs, Miami is giving up only 111.6 points per 100 possessions, with opponents shooting only 33.5% from 3-point range. The Heat also allow only 22.5 assists per playoff game, and Miami is creating a turnover on 15.5% of defensive possessions against Boston. 

On the other end, the Heat are also excelling on the way to a 10-3 playoff record and a +5.0 net rating in postseason games. Miami is scoring more than 1.21 points per possession in the series against Boston, grabbing 34.4% of available offensive rebounds. The Heat are also shooting 43.9% from 3-point range and 49.7% from the field against the Celtics, and Miami is averaging only 12.5 turnovers per game in the playoffs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.