Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction: FA Cup Fourth Round Preview
Two teams with 15 FA Cup trophies between them will do battle at Stamford Bridge. We look ahead to the game with our data-powered Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction and preview.
Just three days after securing a place at Wembley in the EFL Cup, Chelsea will continue to their bid to make it to the national stadium in another competition when they host Aston Villa in the FA Cup.
The all-Premier League fourth round tie on Friday looks like one of the most attractive fixtures in the last 32, as two teams who have been important parts of the tournament’s history face off.
Chelsea are eight-time FA Cup winners, although their last success was in 2018 after they were beaten by Liverpool in a heart-breaking final in 2022, a year when they also made it to the Carabao Cup showpiece against the Reds, who they will face one again in a cup final next month.
Recent success in the competition has been tougher to come by for Aston Villa. It is 67 years since they last lifted the trophy in 1957, with the most recent final appearance being a 4-0 defeat to Arsenal in 2015.
But Villa are seven-time winners and that history has been regularly referenced by manager Unai Emery as something he wants to revive. That process started with their 1-0 third-round win at Middlesbrough, which ended a dreadful run of eight consecutive FA Cup defeats.
Chelsea come into the clash on a huge high, having thrashed Boro 6-1 on Tuesday to secure a 6-2 aggregate triumph in their EFL Cup semi-final, emphatically responding to their worrying 1-0 away loss in the first leg.
Two goals from in-form Cole Palmer, bouncing back from a nightmare in front of goal at the Riverside, were supplemented by strikes from Enzo Fernandez, Axel Disasi and Noni Madueke, after the Blues were put on the path to victory by a Jonny Howson own goal.
That semi-final progress has been coupled with some improved Chelsea form. They have won seven of their last nine matches (including the EFL Cup win over Newcastle on penalties) and moved back within striking distance of the top six in the Premier League table.
That still puts them well short of Villa, who are fourth and 12 points better off despite a minor recent stumble that has seen them win just one of their last four top-flight matches.
Villa are stronger at home than on their travels, but can take comfort from the fact they have won their last two trips to Stamford Bridge. They have the chance to win three straight games against Chelsea for the first time since 1984, while it was 1960 when they last won three consecutive away matches in this fixture.
But the Blues have a magnificent home record in FA Cup matches, with 40 wins, five draws and two defeats in their last 47 such games, so Villa face a tough test if they are to record another away triumph.
Chelsea could be without 11 first-team players, including injured captain Reece James and striker Nicolas Jackson, who is at the Africa Cup of Nations, an absence which is giving Armando Broja a chance to stake his claim for a long-term future at the club. There was at least a boost when Ben Chilwell made first club start for 118 days against Boro.
Pau Torres, Jacob Ramsey and Lucas Digne are all injury doubts for Villa, but Emery does not have anywhere near the injury issues of opposite number Mauricio Pochettino.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Head-to-HeadAston Villa have already won at Stamford Bridge this season, triumphing 1-0 in September, and they also recorded a 2-0 victory at Chelsea in April towards the end of the 2022-23 campaign.
A red card to Malo Gusto proved costly for Chelsea in the 2023-24 meeting, with Ollie Watkins firing in a late winner past Robert Sanchez as Villa punished the 10-man hosts, who were enduring a difficult start to the Pochettino era.
Jackson and Raheem Sterling were both thwarted by Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez as Villa claimed a valuable away win.
The victory last season had continued to pile pressure on then-manager Graham Potter, with the two clubs trending in opposite directions at that point as Emery’s methods made an immediate impact at Villa Park.
Watkins was again among the scorers, netting after a mistake from Marc Cucurella, and the win was sealed by a powerful strike from John McGinn.
Pochettino will feel in a better place now than he did in the early stages of his reign and Chelsea had won the previous four meetings with Villa before the two most recent defeats, including winning a League Cup third-round tie on penalties in 2021-22.
The Blues have had Villa’s number in the FA Cup too. They have won the last three meetings between the sides in this competition, including a final triumph in 2000 when Roberto Di Matteo scored the winner.
There was also a 2010 semi-final win where late goals from Didier Drogba, Florent Malouda and Frank Lampard sent the Blues into another final, which they won against Portsmouth.
Recent FormChelsea’s improvement has been in large part down to Palmer, who has raced on to 11 goals and seven assists from just 23 appearances in all competitions since signing from Manchester City and saw his performances rewarded with an England call-up.
Three straight Premier League wins over Crystal Palace, Luton Town and Fulham had improved the mood even before the rallying win over Boro in midweek.
And the Blues have an impressive recent FA Cup track record. Since losing to Manchester United in 2019, they have won eight home ties in a row by an aggregate score of 24-3.
Sterling is a player who enjoys this competition. He netted in the 4-0 third-round win over Preston North End and has 19 goal involvements (10 goals and nine assists) in his last 20 FA Cup starts. The last time he faced Villa in this competition, Sterling helped former club Man City to a 4-0 cup win in 2016, scoring in that fixture.
The Villans drew 0-0 at Everton last time out, their second consecutive clean sheet, with the main recent blot on their copybook being the Boxing Day collapse at Old Trafford, where they squandered a two-goal half-time lead and were beaten 3-2.
They have also relied on late goals to salvage results against Brentford, Sheffield United and Burnley, so do not come into the match at the peak of their powers.
But it has still been a stunning season with the prospect of UEFA Champions League qualification – and maybe even a shock title push – still on the table heading into the final months of the campaign.
While the win over Boro ended a long FA Cup slump, Villa have still lost their last seven away FA Cup matches against EPL teams.
Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Friday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa PredictionWith home advantage, some impressive recent form and a strong track record in the FA Cup, Chelsea are given the advantage over Aston Villa by the Opta supercomputer.
The Blues are favourites with a win probability of 45.8%, but our predictive model is not expecting a one-sided encounter and still gives Villa a decent chance of progressing themselves (29.1%) or forcing a replay if the contest is drawn (25.1%).
Villa have a substantial 69.4% probability of achieving a Premier League top-four finish, according to our season simulations, so this competition might hold more importance for Chelsea (who have just a 0.4% chance).
However, Villa have not played since January 14 and have a cleaner bill of health, so it is easy to see why the system has kept its options open for one of the closest ties to call this week.
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