Somalia Weekly Weather Forecast - Valid From 13 - 19 December ...

Mostly dry conditions will prevail over most parts of Somalia this week, with limited rainfall expected over very narrow northern coastal areas. Temperatures will remain high in southern Somalia, with significantly cooler conditions in the central and northern regions during nighttime.

Review of Past Rainfall and River Levels

Rainfall: Observational data for the week ending 11 December 2024 shows no significant rainfall observed across Somalia. Recent satellite rainfall estimates confirm the continued below-average rainfall across Somalia during the first ten days of December 2024. The severity and extent of rainfall deficits is increasing in the central and southern regions, especially in Bay, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and HIraan regions (Map 1). Cumulative rainfall anomalies exceed 100 mm below the long-term mean in Baydhaba, Buur Hakaba and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region, Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region (Map 1).

While La Niña typically suppresses rainfall, the observed ENSO- neutral state implies that other factors, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is likely to have limited the moisture fetch from the Indian Ocean, have contributed to the delayed and below-normal Deyr rains. With only two weeks left, the Deyr season has already failed, leaving most regions with significant rainfall deficits.

The lack of rainfall further exacerbates agricultural stress in drought-prone regions. Vegetation stress remains critical, as highlighted in the latest FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI). The 10-days dry spell is likely to offset the November rainfall-driven improvements in vegetation health particularly in some areas in the southern region with equally serious implications on water availability for crops and pasture. This highlights the need for continued monitoring and potential intervention in the drought prone areas in these regions.

River Levels: A continued drop in the water levels along the Shabelle and Juba Rivers has been observed. River level at Belet Weyne is 2.7 m below the flood risk threshold, with the latest (13 November 2024) reading at 3.84 m (Graph 1). This marks a gradual decline from the seasonal peak observed in late November. Levels at Jowhar and Bulo Burte continue to stabilize below moderate flood risk thresholds, driven by prevailing dry conditions over the entire catchment. River levels at both Dollow and Luuq remain well below moderate flood risk levels, reflecting the continued lack of significant rainfall in catchment areas. The level recorded at Luuq (Graph 2) as of 13 December 2024 (2.56 m) is about 3 m below moderate flood risk level (5.50 m)

Forecast for the Week Between 13 and 19 December 2024

Rainfall: According to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecasts, only very light rains (<10 mm) are expected over extremely narrow northern coastal parts of Somalia during the coming week (Map 2). Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase.

As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region.

The light rains along the narrow northern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

Temperature: Forecasted maximum (map 3) and minimum temperatures indicate the persistence of varied thermal conditions across the country. The spatial variation of forecast temperature is as follows:

Based on daily minimum temperature, nighttime thermal conditions are likely to vary from between 20 °C and 25 °C over vast inland areas in northern Somalia. It is likely to drop further down to below 20 °C in some areas in Borama district in Awdal region, Gebiley and Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh and Burco district in Togdheer region, Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, and Qandala district in Bari region. Nighttime conditions are comparatively warmer across most southern and central regions with minimum temperatures ranging from 25 °C to 30 °C.

Elevated daily maximum temperatures exceeding 35 °C are likely to persist over southern regions, including inland parts of Lower Juba, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle regions; Dinsoor, and Buur Hakaba, and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region; Rab Dhuure district in Bakool region; Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region; and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Temperatures in some inland parts of Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region and Jilib district in Middle Juba region may exceed 40 °C.

Moderately high daily maximum temperatures ranging from 30 °C to 35 °C are expected over Galgaduud region; inland parts of both Mudug and Nugaal regions; Laas Canood and Xudun districts in Sool region; Buhoodle district in Togdheer region