UFC 309 odds, predictions: Jones vs. Miocic pits GOAT against legend

We have the return of two legends as Jon Jones faces Stipe Miocic for the heavyweight belt on Saturday at UFC 309. The night includes a fun undercard as well.

While I don’t view this event as the best from an investment perspective, I’ll share my thoughts on the main event and a couple of preliminary matchups. If you’d like to chat about any other fight, please let me know in the comment section below.

And if you’d like full breakdowns for every fight on every slate, you can find them at EstablishTheRun.com or find more information on Twitter at BrettAppley.

Let’s dive in!

One of the GOATs in Mixed Martial Arts and the current heavyweight champion, Jon Jones, will return to the Octagon on Saturday to fight former champion Stipe Miocic.

Although the interim champion Tom Aspinall is waiting in the wings, Jones has demanded that 42-year-old Miocic, who hasn’t won a fight since August 2020, is the one he needs to beat to solidify his legacy. Jones will enter the contest as a -650 favorite on BetMGM, and I won’t have any action on the fight from a betting perspective as it’s very difficult to know what to expect from either party.

Miocic had an incredible run through the heavyweight division, but he’s a half-decade removed from his prime, and the last time we saw him, he was brutally knocked unconscious by Francis Ngannou in the second round. There’s no shame in that result alone, but Miocic looked old, slow and worn down in that contest, which took place in 2021.

With Miocic three years removed from that clash and essentially retired from the sport, it’s difficult to trust that he will regain his form and put up a threat to Jones.

Jones has been inactive in recent years, only competing against Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight belt in 2023, when he won by guillotine in two minutes. Prior to that, Jones hadn’t competed since 2020.

I do feel as though Jones has declined in recent fights. He went to a very competitive decision with both Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes, who are largely two average talents in the light heavyweight division.

Jones has simply been a less effective offensive fighter in recent years. He has only secured one knockdown in his last 43 professional rounds and hasn’t been as effective as a wrestler, either. Despite his success against Gane, who has no real base as a grappler, I am not convinced that Jones can turn back the clock and become his former dominant self, where he would control and smash opponents from top position.

However, Jones has still been a very strong defensive force, which is one of his best attributes, and I do still believe he is capable in that regard.

Jones historically only absorbs 2.22 significant (sig.) strikes per minute, with a 64 percent defensive rate, and he defends takedowns at 95 percent. He’s also been one of the most durable fighters in the sport’s history and has never suffered a knockdown.

There just aren’t many ways to score against Jones.

That’s why I still lean pretty strongly toward Jones in this matchup against Miocic. I am not convinced that Jones easily KOs Miocic in the first round or demolishes him on the mat, but I am not sure where Miocic will be able to have his successes.

Miocic is historically a very capable boxer with decent volume and power for the heavyweight division. He lands 4.82 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.82 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate. He’s also a good wrestler, averaging 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 68 percent defensive rate.

In theory, Miocic could have an advantage in the pocket. We’ve seen him go the five-round distance many times, and he’s put up 115 and 123 sig. strikes in recent battles against Daniel Cormier. He also has power, which could turn into a KO, given the variance in this division.

I do not think Jones will allow Miocic into the pocket with ease. Jones will want to play a range-finding game and kick from the outside. Even if these two strike in the pocket, Miocic has been knocked out cold multiple times, while Jones has barely taken any real damage.

Miocic may also want to clinch and wrestle, but I don’t see him winning that battle either. Jones is a super effective clinch fighter and the more dangerous submission grappler. Of the two, I would guess Jones can land takedowns of his own.

Miocic may have a path to victory if he can simply survive — and box and clinch his way into some competitive rounds. I see Jones landing more frequently and more effectively, though, and he’s likely the one to control the grappling exchanges, too. More reasonably, Jones will probably hurt Miocic along the way and finish the fight.

Although I am not interested in this fight from a betting perspective, there are a couple of props I don’t hate. Jones to win by KO/TKO feels like the most likely outcome, which you can find at +100 or better across the market. 

The fight is also -175 to go over 1.5 rounds, which I feel is pretty likely, as I expect that these two start somewhat slow. However, given Miocic’s recent durability and layoff, it’s tough to be fully confident.

Regardless of what happens, I will try to enjoy watching Jones compete once again, as we may not get many more fights from him before he retires.

In one of my favorite preliminary matchups, I see a super binary dynamic between the kickboxer Jhonata Diniz and his opponent Marcin Tybura.

Diniz is 8-0 professionally with seven wins by KO, but he also carried a 22-7 pro kickboxing record before transitioning to Mixed Martial Arts.

He won his contract on the Contender Series with a first-round KO in 2023 and has since followed it up with a knockout over Austen Lane and a decision over Karl Williams.

Diniz won’t compare to a fighter like Alex Pereira, but he’s still a very competent and technical striker with knockout power for the heavyweight division. I also loved seeing him go three rounds in MMA in his last fight, as it seems his cardio is pretty solid as well.

Most won’t want to compete on the feet with Diniz, and as long as he can keep the fight upright, he’ll have a great chance to win.

The problem, as is typical in this situation, is that Diniz is much less competent as a grappler. He is a blue belt in jiu-jitsu, but it’s very clear to me that his defensive wrestling and grappling are an issue. In both of his UFC fights, Diniz has lost dominant rounds on the mat. Against Lane, Diniz gave up a takedown in the first minute and was held down for the entire round. Against Williams, he defended a couple of clinch takedowns early but surrendered a takedown late and was held down and beaten up badly.

Mostly, it’s clear that Diniz doesn’t fully know what to do on his back. He’s not sure how to get up and won’t threaten with submissions. Perhaps his pure takedown defense is a bit better, but he’s tipped over fairly easily against two fighters who are mediocre wrestlers.

That’s why I will pick Tybura as the first man to beat him in pro MMA.

Tybura is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) black belt and a pretty solid wrestler for the heavyweight division. He’s fought a very long UFC career with mixed success, but in recent years, Tybura has won several fights in which he’s gotten his opponent down on the mat. Most recently, Tybura fought the brawler Tai Tuivasa, who he took down in round one and choked out shortly thereafter. I’m not sure the finish against Diniz will come as easily, but it could, and I think Tybura would have a major advantage if he ever gets on top.

However, Tybura is not a perfect fighter either, and his major downfall has been his durability. Tybura has been KOd several times in the UFC, including recently against Tom Aspinall, and I worry for him when he has to stand and trade. Tybura actually isn’t a bad striker, and his metrics are fine. He lands 3.57 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.34 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate. But he’s clearly on the wrong end of the durability spectrum and will probably be knocked out again soon.

That’s why I view this fight as a fairly binary one to break down. If Tybura can get Diniz on the mat, he’ll win and probably dominate. If not, Diniz will probably knock him out.

One thing I’ll note, though, is that Diniz isn’t the most devastating KO artist. As mentioned, he couldn’t hurt Lane until round two, and he couldn’t ever finish off Williams. Tybura has gone the five-round distance before and has perfectly acceptable cardio, so he won’t be in real danger in an extended fight.

Tybura is lined at -145 to win on BetMGM which is approaching a territory that I think is fair, but I still think there’s a bit of value on that line. I have some action down on him already, and if he gets knocked out quickly, I’ll accept that loss.

You could also consider touching on either side’s inside-the-distance (ITD) line, where Tybura sits at +195 and Diniz sits at +100. The +195 on Tybura could be his most likely path to victory.

This is not a fight or card to invest heavily in from a betting perspective, and there is a lot of variance in many of the matchups. However, I never mind getting some exposure to grapplers against opponents who struggle on the mat, so I’ll take my chances with Tybura this weekend.

I don’t like many underdogs on this slate, but I am willing to take a chance on Eduarda Moura, who will face Veronica Hardy on Saturday.

Moura is a grappling specialist who is 10-1 professionally, and she’s coming off her first loss against Denise Gomes in June. In that fight, Moura was able to land a handful of takedowns, but she got very tired and slowed down, and Gomes was the more effective striker. That’s never a recipe for long-term success, and it greatly concerns me, considering the vast majority of the rest of her wins have been early finishes. I typically fade these spots, and ultimately, if Moura slows down and loses again this weekend, I will not be shocked.

To her credit, though, Moura attempted 26 takedowns in that fight, which included nine, nine and eight in each round. That kind of output will tire any fighter out, and it’s less worrisome to me than a fighter who will gas themselves out swinging for the fences for the first three minutes.

More importantly, I think Hardy is a bit overrated due to her recent wins against lesser competition. She’s coming off decision victories against JJ Aldrich and Jamey-Lyn Horth, where she landed 36 and 43 significant strikes.

I’ve been impressed with Hardy’s progression since her UFC debut in 2016, and I partially attribute that to her learning under the ropes of her husband, Dan Hardy, another legend in the sport of MMA. Veronica Hardy is a taekwondo specialist who carries speed in her hands and feet and is fully capable of winning fights at distance. She also has a background in jiu-jitsu and is pretty competent on the mat.

Hardy just isn’t an effective fighter, though. She lands 3.13 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.75 per minute, and she’ll be the smaller fighter against most of her competition in this flyweight division. She also lands 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes but defends at 60 percent.

Moura is a more physical fighter than Hardy; she’s bigger than Hardy and a better wrestler and grappler than Hardy. Assuming Moura decides to wrestle, I think she can and will take Hardy down.

From there, it could get tricky. Moura is probably the best BJJ player Hardy has faced, but it’s still quite possible Hardy will survive. And from there, Moura may slow down and lose. I suppose that’s why Hardy is the favorite overall.

While I respect that outcome, my gut feeling is that Moura can land takedowns in multiple rounds. I think her loss against Gomes, who is a physical beast herself, is playing too big of a factor in this betting line, and Moura is not getting enough credit for attempting nearly 10 takedowns per round, including late into the third round.

Even if the fight plays out on the feet, Moura can still strike competitively with Hardy early. If she gasses out after a round, then Hardy will be able to take over, but the outcome still depends on her ability to defend the takedown.

Moura is lined at +125 to win on BetMGM, which is an implied win rate of 44.44 percent. I favor Moura in this fight outright, and I expect she’ll be winning early, so I’m willing to make a small play here.

It will only be a small play, though, as the cardio is a real X factor that could swing the fight in Hardy’s favor. Ultimately, I don’t know how hard Moura has trained for this and whether her cardio has improved. I do like that she has now gone the distance and knows what to expect, and usually, that’s a benefit to fighters.

Given her wrestling and physical advantages, I’m hopeful and don’t mind a small underdog shot.

(Photo of Jon Jones: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)