Uefa Champions League Matchweek One: What the stats say
According to the Opta predictor, Manchester City are the favourites to win this season’s Uefa Champions League with a 24.9 per cent chance of doing so. Indeed, they have a better than one-in-two chance of returning to at least the semifinal in this year’s edition (55.9 per cent).
After favourites Manchester City, reigning champions Real Madrid are the side with the second-best chance of lifting the Uefa Champions League this term (17.8 per cent). Los Blancos are, in fact, the last side to have won the tournament in consecutive campaigns, winning the 2016, 2017 and 2018 finals back-to-back.
Of the 10 teams with the highest probability of winning the 2024-25 Uefa Champions League, England are the nation with the most different sides making up that group (3): Manchester City rank first (24.9 per cent), Arsenal rank fourth (6.3 per cent) and Liverpool rank seventh (4.6 per cent).
Here is what you can expect in Matchweek one. Catch all the action live on SuperSport with highlights and key moments on the SuperSport app.
YOUNG BOYS V ASTON VILLA
17 September 2024
This will be the first ever meeting between Young Boys and Aston Villa. Swiss sides have only won seven of the previous 24 meetings with English sides in the Uefa Champions League (D6 L11), while six of those seven victories were achieved by Basle (one by Young Boys).
Young Boys have only won one of their previous six games against English opponents in the Uefa Champions League (D1 L4), losing home and away to Manchester City in the competition last season. Their only victory over an English side came in September 2021, winning 2-1 at home to Manchester United.
Aston Villa will become the 11th different English club to compete in the Uefa Champions League, and the first English newcomer since Leicester City in 2016-17 (won 3-0 in their first game versus Club Brugge).
This will be Aston Villa’s first game in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League since March 1983, when they were beaten over two legs by Juventus in the 1982-83 quarterfinal (1-2 at home in the first leg, 1-3 in the second leg away).
JUVENTUS V PSV EINDHOVEN
17 September 2024
This will be the first ever competitive meeting between Juventus and PSV Eindhoven, with the Old Lady’s last game against a Dutch opponent in the Uefa Champions League coming in a quarterfinal elimination against Ajax in 2018-19 (2-3 on aggregate, lost 1-2 in the home leg).
PSV Eindhoven have never won away from home against an Italian side in the Uefa Champions League (D2 L4), while they’ve scored just two goals across those six trips.
Juventus have only lost two of their 11 meetings with Dutch sides in the Uefa Champions League (W6 D3), although one of those two defeats did come in the most recent such game – 1-2 v Ajax in the quarterfinal second leg in April 2019.
MILAN V LIVERPOOL
17 September 2024
This will be the fifth meeting between Milan and Liverpool in European competition, with half of their previous clashes coming in the Uefa Champions League final (2/4) – 2004-05 (won by Liverpool on penalties) and 2005-06 (won 2-1 by Milan).
Liverpool have won all three of their Uefa Champions League games at the Giuseppe Meazza stadium, winning 1-0 in 2008 and 2-0 in 2022 against Internazionale, and 2-1 against Milan in 2021. The Reds are the only team to play there more than once as a visiting side in the competition while maintaining a 100 per cent record.
Liverpool have won four of their last five away games against Italian sides in European competition (L1), with all five of those coming since 2020. Prior to this, the Reds had only won three of their first 14 such matches away to Italian opposition (D3 L8).
Milan are unbeaten in their last four games against English sides in the Uefa Champions League (W2 D2), with each of those coming across the previous two seasons (v Spurs and Newcastle). They’ve never previously managed to avoid defeat in five consecutive games against English opponents in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League.
BAYERN MUNICH V DINAMO ZAGREB
17 September 2024
This will be the fifth meeting between Bayern Munich and Dinamo Zagreb in European competition. After facing in the quarterfinal of the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in 1962-63 (won 4-1 on aggregate by Dinamo), they most recently met in the 2015-16 Uefa Champions League group stage (Bayern won home and away).
Dinamo Zagreb won 4-1 in their first away game against Bayern Munich (in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in March 1963), but were beaten 0-5 there on their last trip – in September 2015 in the Uefa Champions League.
In their previous Uefa Champions League home game against Dinamo Zagreb – a 5-0 win in 2015 – Bayern Munich averaged 77 per cent possession, had 27 shots, and recorded 51 touches in the opposition box. Meanwhile, they only faced six shots in return and limited the Croatian side to five touches in their penalty area.
REAL MADRID V STUTTGART
17 September 2024
Real Madrid have faced 15 different German teams in European competition to date, but this will be their first ever competitive game against Stuttgart.
This will be Stuttgart’s first game in the Uefa Champions League since March 2010, when they were beaten 0-4 by Barcelona in the second leg of a Last 16 tie (lost 1-5 on aggregate). Overall, they are winless in all six of their games against Spanish teams in the competition (D2 L4).
Real Madrid have only lost one of their last 21 games against German sides in European competition (W14 D6), with that lone defeat coming away to RB Leipzig in the Uefa Champions League in October 2022 (2-3). Indeed, Carlo Ancelotti’s side had already qualified from the group stage heading into that game, and made five changes to their starting XI.
Real Madrid have failed to score in only one of their last 74 home matches in the Uefa Champions League, with that exception coming against CSKA Moscow in the group stage in December 2018 (0-3).
SPORTING CP V LILLE
17 September 2024
Sporting CP and Lille have met just twice previously in European competition, with the Portuguese side winning home (1-0) and away (2-1) in the 2010-11 Uefa Europa League group stage.
Lille won their first ever away trip to face a Portuguese side in Europe (2-0 v União de Leiria in the Uefa Intertoto Cup in August 2004), but have since lost on each of their last three such trips, and all without scoring a goal.
Sporting CP have only won one of their six games against French sides in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League (D1 L4), losing each of the last three in a row. Their last meeting with French opponents in the competition came in the 2022-23 group stage, losing home (0-2) and away (1-4) to Marseille.
SPARTA PRAGUE V RB SALZBURG
18 September 2024
Sparta Prague and RB Salzburg’s only previous meetings came in Uefa Champions League qualifying in 1997-98, with the side from Czechia winning 3-0 on aggregate and going on to reach the group stage (0-0 away and 3-0 at home).
This will be the first European Cup/Uefa Champions League game between a team from Czechia (including Czechoslovakia) and one from Austria since the 1983-84 campaign, with SK Rapid winning on away goals against Bohemians 1905 in a Last 16 tie (2-2 on aggregate).
RB Salzburg have qualified for the Uefa Champions League in each of the last six seasons, with Shakhtar Donetsk the only other team from outside of Europe’s big five leagues to do so.
BOLOGNA V SHAKHTAR DONETSK
18 September 2024
This will be Bologna’s first ever meeting with a Ukrainian opponent in European competition. In the European Cup/Uefa Champions League specifically, they’ll be only the second different opponent they’ve faced overall, with all three of their previous games coming against Anderlecht in 1964-65 (W1 D1 L1).
Shakhtar Donetsk are winless in their last eight games against Italian sides in European competition (D3 L5) – all of which have been since December 2019 – while they’ve failed to score in seven of those eight matches (only one goal in total).
Shakhtar Donetsk lost their first four away games against Italian opponents in the Uefa Champions League (between 2000 and 2007), but have only lost on three of their seven such trips since then (W2 D2), registering wins at Roma in 2011 (3-2) and Atalanta in 2019 (2-1).
CELTIC V SLOVAN BRATISLAVA
18 September 2024
Celtic and Slovan Bratislava have faced on two previous occasions, with both of those meetings coming in the quarterfinal of the 1963-64 Cup Winners’ Cup. The Scottish side won both legs by a 1-0 scoreline, before being eliminated in the semifinal by MTK Budapest (3-4 on aggregate).
Slovan Bratislava’s last victory over a British side in major European competition was in September 1975, beating Derby County 1-0 in the first round of the European Cup (first leg). Since then, they have played nine such matches and failed to win all of them (D2 L7), including defeats in each of the last five.
This will be the 28th edition of the European Cup that Celtic have been involved in, with Manchester United (30) being the only British team to appear in more (Liverpool also on 28, as of 2024-25).
CLUB BRUGGE V BORUSSIA DORTMUND
18 September 2024
Club Brugge have lost four of their last five European games against Borussia Dortmund (D1), including losing both Uefa Champions League group stage games 3-0 in 2020-21 in their most recent meetings.
Borussia Dortmund have never conceded a goal in four previous Uefa Champions League meetings with Club Brugge – no side has ever played five overall games against an opponent without conceding in the history of the competition.
Club Brugge have only won three of their last 20 home matches in the Uefa Champions League (D6 L11) – in their last six on home soil, they have won two without conceding and lost the other four by an aggregate score of 16-1.
MANCHESTER CITY V INTER MILAN
18 September 2024
The only previous European encounter between Manchester City and Inter Milan was in the 2023 Uefa Champions League final, won 1-0 by City thanks to a Rodri goal.
Inter have won away at four different English teams in the Uefa Champions League (Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool) and could become the fourth team to win at 5+ English teams, after Barcelona (7), Real Madrid (5) and Bayern Munich (5).
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 23 games in the Uefa Champions League (W16 D7). If they avoid defeat in their first two games of 2024-25, they will equal the longest unbeaten streak by a team in European Cup/Uefa Champions League history (25 games by Manchester United, September 2007-May 2009).
Inter have only lost three of their last 20 Uefa Champions League matches (W11 D6). They’ve only started one of their last nine campaigns with a win, however, beating Spurs 2-1 in 2018-19 (D5 L3).
PARIS SG V GIRONA
18 September 2024
Girona will be PSG’s 44th different Uefa Champions League opponent. PSG have won their first game against six of their last seven new opponents but did lose 4-1 to Newcastle last season.
Only one of the last 28 teams travelling away to Paris SG for the first time in the Uefa Champions League have come away with a victory, with Man Utd winning 3-1 in March 2019 (D8 L19).
This will be Girona’s first game in the Uefa Champions League. The last Spanish side to debut in the competition was Málaga back in the 2012-13 campaign, while each of the last three debuting Spanish sides have gone on to make the knockout stages (Villarreal in 2005-06, Sevilla in 2007-08 and Málaga in 2012-13).
FEYENOORD V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
19 September 2024
Feyenoord and Bayer Leverkusen’s only previous meeting was in the last 16 of the 1987-88 Uefa Cup – the German side prevailed 3-2 on aggregate on their way to winning the trophy that season.
Bayer Leverkusen have never lost a major European game against a Dutch side in six previous meetings (W3 D3), though this is their first since a 0-0 draw with PSV in the Uefa Cup in September 1994.
Feyenoord have lost 12 of their last 15 matches in the Uefa Champions League (W3), including each of their last eight in a row away from home.
CRVENA ZVEZDA V BENFICA
19 September 2024
Crvena Zvezda and Benfica met in the first round of 1984-85 European Cup, with the Portuguese side winning 4-3 on aggregate (lost 2-3 away, won 2-0 home).
In three previous home European matches against Portuguese opposition, Crvena Zvezda have never lost, winning 3-2 against Benfica in 1984 in the European Cup and drawing 0-0 and winning 2-1 against Sporting Braga in the 2005-06 Uefa Cup and 2021-22 Uefa Europa League respectively.
Since a run of six wins in eight matches between the group stages and last 16 of the 2022-23 campaign, Benfica have won just one of their last eight Uefa Champions League matches (D2 L5), although did win their most recent encounter 3-1 away at FC Salzburg in December last year.
MONACO V BARCELONA
19 September 2024
The only two meetings between Monaco and Barcelona previously came in the 1993-94 Uefa Champions League group stage, with Barca winning both games (2-0 home, 1-0 away).
This will be Barcelona’s 25th Uefa Champions League match against French teams – both teams have scored in 17 of the previous 24, with those matches averaging 3.6 goals per game. They faced PSG last season and those two games produced 10 goals (3-2 away, 1-4 home).
Monaco won 22 of their first 31 home Uefa Champions League games between 1993 and 2017 but they have lost their last seven in a row at Stade Louis II. No team in European Cup history has ever lost eight consecutive home matches.
ATALANTA V ARSENAL
19 September 2024
Atalanta have never previously faced Arsenal in any competition. The Gunners will be the fifth English side they have met in major European competition, after Everton (W2), Man City (D1 L1), Liverpool (W2 L2) and Man Utd (D1 L1).
Arsenal have lost their last three away Uefa Champions League games in Italy, although this is their first trip there since 2013. Those defeats came at Roma (0-1 in 2009), Milan (0-4 in 2012) and Napoli (0-2 in 2013).
Atalanta’s last four Uefa Champions League games – all in the 2021-22 group stage – have seen both them and their opponents score two or more goals (D2 L2). In the entire history of the European Cup, no side has ever both scored and conceded 2+ goals in five consecutive matches.
Arsenal have won their opening match in each of their last six major European campaigns (five in Uefa Europa League and last season’s Champions League). The last side to beat the Gunners in their first game was Dinamo Zagreb in the 2015-16 Champions League.
ATLÉTICO MADRID V RB LEIPZIG
19 September 2024
The only previous Uefa European meeting between Atlético Madrid and RB Leipzig was in a single-legged quarterfinal in 2019-20, won 2-1 by the German side at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon.
Atlético Madrid have suffered five defeats in their last eight Uefa Champions League meetings with German clubs (W1 D2), their only win in that sequence coming at home to Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of last season’s quarterfinal.
Atlético Madrid were the only side with a 100 per cent home win ratio in last season’s Uefa Champions League, winning all five games. It’s their fourth different run of five home wins in a row but they have never previously won six in a row on home soil in the competition.
BREST V STURM GRAZ
19 September 2024
This is Brest’s first ever match in any European competition. They are the first French side to play their first ever game in Europe in a match in the European Cup since Nantes in 1965, who lost 2-0 to Partizan Belgrade.
This will be 11th meeting between a French team and an Austrian team in the European Cup/Uefa Champions League. All 10 previous meetings have been won by the home side, with French teams winning by an aggregate score of 16-1.
Among the six Austrian teams to play 50+ games in major European competitions (SK Rapid, FK Austrian Wien, FC Salzburg, SK Sturm Graz, FC Wacker Innsbruck & LASK), Sturm Graz have the lowest win ratio of just 27.5 per cent (28 wins in 102 games). They have won just five of their last six 26 games across the Uefa Europa League and Conference League (D6 L15).
