Tottenham vs Liverpool prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets ...

30 Sep 2023
Tottenham vs Liverpool

Two of the Premier League's most improved sides clash in London as Tottenham host Liverpool in a spotlight Saturday matchup.

Liverpool sit second in the Premier League table through their first six matches, having recovered from their opening-day draw with Chelsea to win each of their next five games. The Reds have eaten opposing defenses for lunch, collecting the most expected goals in the league (15.11 xG) while boasting an attack that doesn't rely too heavily on one particular player.

This match presents a stiff test, however, as they meet a Spurs side who are also looking bright up front, with Son Heung-min enjoying a bounce-back season to help mitigate the loss of Harry Kane. New boss Ange Postecoglou took some heat for the way Spurs were dumped from the EFL Cup, but otherwise he has managed to spur Tottenham on to a bright start to the year, sitting fourth on 14 points.

With both sides yet to taste defeat in Premier League play this season, can side collect all three points, or will they share the spoils? There's not only plenty to gain but also plenty to lose as each chase Manchester City at the top of the standings.

Tottenham vs Liverpool match facts Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023 Kickoff Time: 5:30 p.m. local (12:30 p.m. ET / 9:30 a.m. PT) Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London, England) Official: Simon Hooper Last meeting: Liverpool 4-3 Tottenham (Apr. 30, 2023 | Premier League) Tottenham vs Liverpool prediction, odds Moneyline lean: Draw (+300) Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 Liverpool

The way these sides have played thus far, a draw is a reasonable result to expect, and with the value presented, it's the sensible choice on the moneyline.

Spurs have really struggled to get results historically against Liverpool. They are mired in a 12-match winless run against the Reds, dating all the way back to a 4-1 league victory in October of 2017 at home — a stretch that includes the 2019 Champions League final.

win Draw Liverpool
win Both teams
to score Y / N Over / Under
3.5 goals LIV
-0.5 TOT
+0.5 BetMGM
+190 +300 +115 -275 / +185 -110 / -130 +105 -150

In Canada, bet Premier League at Sports Interaction: See the latest odds for Tottenham vs Liverpool here

Tottenham vs Liverpool: best bet Pick: Mohamed Salah to score or assist a goal Odds: -120 (FanDuel)

Goals should flow in this match, given both the historical results between these two sides and their performances this season, but with the odds so tilted towards a high-scoring affair, we're forced to look harder to find openings.

While Darwin Nunez collects much of the headlines with his high-flying performances, it's Mohamed Salah who remains the critical component in the Liverpool attack. He has logged a goal contribution in every single Premier League match this season (though oddly, he's only scored or assisted a goal in each game, never both) and has been a thorn in Tottenham's side of late, scoring eight goals in 13 career league matches against Spurs, including three in his past two games.

To top it all off, Salah was afforded full rest in the midweek EFL Cup win over Leicester City as Liverpool advanced without his services, meaning he should be in great shape to lead the line for the Reds. These odds are rough on first glance, but for Liverpool's best scorer and creator (4.12 xG and 4.03 xA (expected assists), both first on the team) in a match where goals are expected, it's still excellent value.

Tottenham vs Liverpool prop bet Pick: 2+ goals scored in first half Odds: -105 (BetMGM)

Both these teams present very potent attacks, but one anomaly stands out: both sides clamp down defensively in the second half, to a shocking degree.

Before the break, Tottenham have scored six goals on 5.6 xG, and conceded four goals on 5.21 xGA (expected goals against). Meanwhile, Liverpool have scored six goals on 6.38 xG and conceded five goals on 3.22 xGA. Overall, there's some variation, but it's clear that both teams enjoy playing an open match to start things off.

Yet while both sides increase their attacking output to an average degree (it's common for more goals to be scored in the second half than the first), their defensive output flies off the charts. After halftime, Tottenham have scored nine goals on 5.33 xG, but have conceded three on 3.79 xGA. That's only a marginal increase on their first-half defensive concession, as opposed to a more normal uptick. Liverpool's numbers, however, stand out: they have scored nine goals on 6.88 xG, and are yet to concede a single second-half goal on 3.8 xGA.

So, while both teams have scored significantly over their expected goals after the break, indicating a likely regression down the road, they have also clamped down at the back as opposed to the expected increase in scoring opportunities.

Expect the first half to provide the flair. While you can get most goals in first half for +195, it's smarter not to tie the two halves to each other and let the first 45 minutes speak for itself.

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