Bournemouth vs Tottenham Prediction | Opta Analyst
We look ahead to Thursday’s Premier League game at the Vitality Stadium with our Bournemouth vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Can Ange Postecoglou’s visitors get back to winning ways on the south coast?
The midweek round of Premier League fixtures is rounded off at the Vitality Stadium, and plenty of entertainment should be expected as Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth host Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham, with just two points separating the teams prior to kick-off.
Across 26 Premier League matches involving Tottenham or Bournemouth this season, there have been 81 goals scored. Six of those came at Molineux last week as Bournemouth downed Wolves and former head coach Gary O’Neil 4-2, including three penalties by Justin Kluivert.
Their home form has generally been strong. The Cherries have won three of their last four Premier League matches at the Vitality, though they did lose 2-1 to Brighton & Hove Albion last time out on home soil. They have not lost consecutive home league games since October 2023.
Iraola’s men pounced on several glaring defensive errors from Wolves last time out, and their high-pressing style has won them plenty of admirers since he took charge last year.
Bournemouth, as they were last season, are among the top seven pressing teams in the Premier League when measured by PPDA (passes per defensive action), allowing opponents an average of just 11.2 this campaign, after permitting 10.7 in 2023-24.
Iraola’s side rank fourth in the league for high turnovers across the opening 13 matchdays (114), but no team has tallied more shots from these situations than them (25 – level with Liverpool).
The speed and trickery of Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier, David Brooks and Kluivert have been key to their approach. The latter, who netted the first hat-trick of penalties in Premier League history last time out, has been involved in six goals in his last six league appearances (five goals, one assist).
With Micky van de Van still injured for Tottenham and Cristian Romero a doubt, Bournemouth striker Evanilson should also pose a handful for the visiting defence. The former Porto man has won more fouls than any other Bournemouth player in the Premier League this season (23). At Wolves, he became the first player in Premier League history to win three penalties in a single match.
The last few days have showcased the best and worst of Tottenham, who trounced Manchester City 4-0 in their last away Premier League game but were arguably fortunate to take a point from Sunday’s 1-1 home draw with Fulham.
Brennan Johnson was on target for Spurs in that game, netting his 10th goal across all competitions this campaign. Only Erling Haaland (17), Mohamed Salah (12) and Christopher Nkunku (11) have netted more among all Premier League players.
However, they were pegged back by Tom Cairney’s strike and needed Fraser Forster to make five saves to preserve their point. Standing in for the injured Guglielmo Vicario at the age of 36 years and 259 days, Forster became the oldest player to make a Premier League appearance for Spurs since Brad Friedel (42 years, 176 days) in November 2013.
It’s fair to say Postecoglou’s men are still waiting to find consistency – Tottenham have not played out the same result in any of their last eight Premier League games, flitting between wins and defeats across seven straight matchdays before their draw with Fulham.
On the road, meanwhile, they have two wins, one draw and three defeats this campaign. Each of Spurs’ last five Premier League away wins have been to nil, including a 4-0 victory at City last time out on their travels.
Tottenham have not won any of their last 14 when conceding on the road (five draws, nine defeats), since a 2-1 triumph at Crystal Palace in October 2023.
Bournemouth vs Tottenham Head-to-HeadTottenham have won 10 of their 14 Premier League games against Bournemouth (71%), drawing two and losing two. Of all sides they have faced at least 10 times in the competition, only against Swansea City (79%) do they have a higher win rate.
Spurs did the double over the Cherries in 2023-24, winning 3-1 on home soil last December after also succeeding 2-0 at the Vitality in August 2023, with James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski scoring.
Spurs average 2.5 goals per game in the Premier League against Bournemouth (35 goals in 14 matches), their highest rate against any side they have faced at least 10 times in the competition.
Meanwhile, they have only failed to score in one of their last 24 Premier League games played outside of London, doing so in a 4-0 loss at Newcastle United in April, so entertainment should be on the cards.
Bournemouth vs Tottenham PredictionAcross 10,000 pre-match simulations, Tottenham triumphed in 43.8% of scenarios to Bournemouth’s 31.1%. The remaining 25.1% of sims saw the points shared.
Following an up-and-down start to the season, Tottenham are assigned a 13.3% chance of finishing inside the top four, with fifth (23.1%) deemed their likeliest position.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, are given a 7.8% chance of cracking the top six but are expected to finish mid-table, with 11th (13.2%) their likeliest final position.
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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