Spain's complex demographic reality - Elcano Royal Institute

In 2023 there were 100,000 fewer births and 43,000 more deaths in Spain than in 2013. There have been more deaths than births every year since 2015. But for the influx of immigrants the population would have declined substantially –instead it has increased from 46.6 million to 48.6 million–. Not only is the annual number of babies born continuing to decline, but the number of voluntary abortions increased dramatically last year. Now one pregnant woman in four opts for an abortion –in 2013 it was one in five–.

These numbers (see Figure 1) underscore a complex demographic reality and present serious challenges. On the one hand, Spain’s average life expectancy (84 years) is the longest in the EU, thanks to a healthier life-style and an efficient public health system –it consistently scores among the top seven performers in most of the models–. Spain’s ageing population includes many centenarians –indeed, the oldest woman in the world was a Spaniard who died this year at the age of 117–. On the other hand, the fertility rate of only 1.16 live births per woman is way down on the 2.8 to 3 throughout the 1960-75 period and also far below the 2.1 at which existing population levels would be maintained. England’s fertility rate is down to 1.44, the lowest figure since records began in 1938.

”In 2023 there were 100,000 fewer births and 43,000 more deaths in Spain than in 2013. There have been more deaths than births every year since 2015.”

Figure 1. Births, deaths and voluntary abortions, 2013-2023

201320152017201920212023Births425,715420,290393,181360,617337,380322,098Deaths390,419422,568424,523418,703450,744434,114Births less deaths+35,296-2,278-31,342-58,086-113,364-112,016Abortions108,69094,18894,13199,14990,189103,097Abortions as % of pregnancies20.318.319.321.521.124.2Source: INE and Health Ministry.

Spain’s baby boom (from the mid-1950s to the late-1970s) came later than in most other European countries and those babies are now either retired or in many cases about to be: over the next 20 years 14 million people are forecast to retire. The ‘baby bust’ that followed the baby boom means there might not be enough workers to replace them.

The number of babies born in Spain last year was the lowest since records started in 1941: 322,098 compared with the 434,114 deaths. In order to keep the economy growing and sustain public finances, the alternatives are: boost employment, particularly for women; more immigration; higher taxes; lower pensions; delayed retirement; or reduced public services. The Socialist-led minority government seems to have opted for immigration and is hoping that a proposal to legalise the status of around 500,000 undocumented migrants will pass smoothly through parliament. If so, it would be the ninth such mass regularisation in some 40 years. The Bank of Spain forecast in April that, on current trends, Spain will need around 25 million more immigrants over the next 30 years. The current foreign-born population stands at 9 million (18% of the population).

Spain is not the only country in which deaths outstrip births. Among the big EU countries, the same is also happening in Germany, Italy and Poland (see Figure 2), while for the first time since the 1970s the UK also recorded more deaths than births in the year to mid-2023. France is not (yet) in that situation, but even so President Emmanuel Macron has called, rather melodramatically, for ‘demographic rearmament’, as if his country was going to war. The number of Spain’s abortions last year is also striking: one abortion for every four pregnancies, a similar proportion to France’s but far higher than Germany’s and Italy’s one abortion for every seven pregnancies, and Poland’s one per thousand.

Figure 2. Population, births, deaths and voluntary abortions in selected EU countries, 2023

CountryPopulation (mn) at 1/I/24BirthsDeathsAbortionsGermany83.4693,0191,027,916106,218France68.4678,511631,153232,000(2022)Italy58.9379,339660,60056,500Spain48.6322,098434,114103,097Poland36.6272,451409,036425Source: Eurostat and United Nations.

The abortion figures reflect countries’ different laws. In Poland, for example, where the influence of the Roman Catholic Church is now strong, abortion has been largely outlawed since the 1990s after decades of permissive legislation during the communist era. Spain’s laws, however, have been gradually liberalised since 1985. Last year’s rise of almost 13,000 abortions in Spain is partly attributable to a change in the law enabling 16- and 17-year olds to have an abortion without parental consent.

Spain’s abortion rate in 2023 was 12.22 for every 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44, up from 11.68 in 2022 and 10.46 in 2014. Just over 45% of women who had an abortion had used no form of contraception, a shocking figure. According to a survey published last month by the Spanish Contraception Society (SEC), 23.2% of fertile women hardly ever use contraception and almost 40% had used the morning-after pill, indicating that the real number of pregnancies avoided post- rather than pre-intercourse is much higher. The lack of protection is also seen in the alarming rises in gonorrhoea and syphilis –42% and 24%, respectively– between 2021 and 2023, according to the Instituto de Salud Carlos III. These figures are a sad reflection of the lack of sex education in schools, particularly the Roman Catholic concertados (State-subsidised private schools), which is a national disgrace.

Figure 3. Fertility rates in selected EU countries (live births per woman)

Live births per womanFrance1.79Germany1.46EU average1.46Poland1.29Italy1.24Spain1.16Source: Eurostat.

Polls show that in principle couples would like to have more than one child. The main reason for not having more, according to the first-ever study on the issue by the state CIS pollster published last month, is ‘the lack of economic resources’ (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. The main factors for having few children (%)

%Lack of economic resources77.3Problems in reconciling work and life44.1In order not to limit professional opportunities26.4Because children are a big responsibility25.5Concern over the future that children will have23.7Because having the first child was delayed too long22.8Because of insufficient public aid20.6Source: CIS.

As a result of the acute lack of affordable housing, in particular, Spaniards leave home on average at the age of 30 (EU average: 26). This, in turn, postpones couple formation and babies. The average age at which a woman has her first child is 31.6 years (EU average, 29.7 years). And many leave it even later, something that has made Spain’s fertility clinics a growth industry. Spain is now the EU country with the highest proportion of first-time mothers over the age of 40 (10.7% of births, double the EU average, and up from 6.8% in 2013).

Maternity and paternity leave has been equalised (16 weeks at full pay), but much more needs to be done to encourage childbearing. These and other policies do not compensate for the lack of affordable housing (back in the 1970s, during the Franco regime, paternity leave was a symbolic one day).

As a percentage of GDP, Spain’s family-benefits public spending is half that in northern European nations. Only Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania, Norway and Slovenia provide free childcare, something that Spain can only do if it raises more revenue from taxes. Unicef ranks Spain 20th out of 41 OECD and EU countries in childcare policies based on maternity and paternity leave, access, quality and affordability (see Figure 5).

Figure 5. League table of national childcare policies

Rank by countryRank by country1. Luxembourg11. Finland2. Iceland12. Lithuania3.Sweden13. Austria4. Norway14. Malta5. Germany15.Italy6. Portugal16. Greece7. Latvia17. Slovenia8. Denmark18. Belgium9. Republic of Korea19. France10. Estonia20. SpainSource: Unicef.

As well as affordable, or better still free, childcare, work needs to be made more flexible and men should do more housework. There have been improvements in Spain in the latter two areas, but not enough.

There’s a traditional Spanish saying to the effect that Todo niño nace con un pan debajo del brazo (literally ‘Every baby is born with a loaf of bread under its arm’). Unfortunately, nowadays more and more people seem to believe that a baby is in fact unaffordable.