Preview: Shanghai feels like a potential US Open do-over, without ...
Nine of the Top 10 are in the field—including Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and a returning Novak Djokovic.
Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz, who each won two majors in 2024, are the consensus players of the year, and Djokovic is still a dangerous third wheel. But that isn’t quite reflected in the Shanghai seedings. Sinner is No. 1, Alexander Zverev is No. 2, Alcaraz is third, and Djokovic is fourth.
Those seedings don’t quite reflect the live ATP race, either. With his run to the final in Beijing, Alcaraz clinched a return to No. 2, but that didn’t happen in time for the Shanghai seedings. Which means that Sinner and Alcaraz are in the top half together, and Zverev and Djokovic are in the bottom half. It also means that No. 5 Daniil Medvedev is in the same quarter as Sinner. This is similar to what we saw at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but it feels even less representative of current ATP reality than it did then.
Of course, if last year’s edition of this tournament is any indication, none of that might end up meaning much. In 2023, the Top 4 were all gone by the quarterfinals, and the semifinalists were Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, Hubert Hurkacz, and Sebastian Korda. Hurkacz, who is not in Shanghai this time, edged Rublev 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker for the title.
There are no cakewalks at a Masters 1000 like this, but neither is there one road that looks especially rocky.
Sinner’s path is probably the most difficult for the simple fact that Medvedev is his potential quarterfinal opponent. Otherwise, he’ll be a solid favorite against any of the other seeds in his quarter—Tomas Etcheverry, Arthur Fils, Ben Shelton, and Stefanos Tsitsipas among them.
Alcaraz has an interesting potential opener against local favorite, and recent Chengdu champion, Jerry Shang. After that, he might face Nicolas Jarry, Ugo Humbert, and either Casper Ruud or Tommy Paul in the quarters.
Djokovic could also play a young Chinese talent, Bu Yunchaokete, in the first round. From there his road might look like this: Flavio Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe, and a quarterfinal against last year’s runner-up, Rublev. Djokovic hasn’t been to Shanghai since pre-pandemic 2019, but he’s a four-time champion there and has never lost before the quarters.
Zverev, the No. 2 seed, may be on a collision course with an opponent he may be sick of seeing across the net: Taylor Fritz. Fritz beat the German this year at Wimbledon, the US Open, and Laver Cup. Other seeds in this section include Holger Rune, Lorenzo Musetti, and Brandon Nakashima.
