Historic Rugby Championship title in sight for Rassie's ever-evolving ...

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Earlier this year Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus would not be drawn too deeply about whether his team needs to dominate between World Cups as the next natural step in their progression.

Rugby Championship - Figure 1
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After winning the 2019 and 2023 editions of the Rugby World Cup and claiming a 2-1 series win against the 2021 British & Irish Lions, what remained was to win the Freedom Cup and a full version of the Rugby Championship.

Another aspect was to lift their winning percentage to around the 80% mark, like the great All Black team of 2010-2019, which actually had close to a 90% winning ratio while claiming two World Cups.

The All Blacks of 2010-2019 were perhaps the most dominant sports team of all time – in any discipline.

From the start of the 2010 international season to the quarterfinal of RWC 2019 when they beat Ireland 46-14, the All Blacks played 131 Tests and won 115 of those, with 12 defeats and four draws for an 88% winning ratio.

They were, on average, 20 points better than every team, every time they played.

Winning percentages

Erasmus didn’t want to become too fixated on winning percentages when he laid out his plans for 2024 in a lengthy media session in March. Winning a third Rugby World Cup title in Australia in 2027 remained the priority, he said.

What has transpired though, is that the Boks have become an 88% winning team while picking up trophies along the way.

Bok wing Kurt-Lee Arendse returns to the starting line-up on Saturday, 21 September 2024. (Photo: Anton Geyser / Gallo Images)

They have won seven of eight Tests this year (88%), collected the Nelson Mandela Plate for beating Australia twice, and the Freedom Cup for beating the All Blacks twice. It’s the first time since 2009 that they have claimed the latter trophy.

And this weekend they have the chance to win the Rugby Championship for the first time in its full, double-round format. Argentina joined in 2012, and in that time the Boks have only won it once – in 2019 when it was a single round due to the World Cup later that year.

If the Boks avoid defeat in Santiago, they will be crowned 2024 champions.

Rugby Championship - Figure 2
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Stellar campaign

The Boks have won four from four matches in the tournament and have 18 log points, with the Pumas in second place on 10 points. If the Pumas don’t win, the Boks will be champions.

Erasmus has overseen an exceptional campaign in the sense that the Boks have fulfilled multiple goals along the way.

They have won those two trophies against their old foes the Wallabies and All Blacks, and they have introduced a handful of new players to the southern hemisphere’s showpiece.

The likes of fullback Aphelele Fassi, flyhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (who is currently injured and is out for at least a month), flank Ben-Jason Dixon, lock Ruan Nortjé, prop Gerhard Steenekamp and No 8 Elrigh Louw have all shone at various times in the campaign.

These are the players Erasmus needed to see emerge during the tournament to continue his multi-pronged evolution.

Not only are the Boks creating pathways for new players to shine, they are also evolving their playing style on both sides of the ball, and doing it while continuing to win.

Standing still is going backwards in elite sport. Erasmus has refused to allow the team to stagnate and become complacent after so much success between 2019-2023 because there are many more challenges left to conquer.

Winning the Rugby Championship will be the most important of them in 2024.

Even if the Boks get the job done in Santiago, the smaller objectives within the larger playbook will continue to drive standards. Winning in Argentina in isolation is a big deal and one of the key metrics driving this week’s team.

If they get that right, then Erasmus will challenge the team to win the final round in Mbombela to go through the entire campaign undefeated.

And after that he will set his sights on the Boks going through a November European tour undefeated for the first time since 2013. The challenges keep coming. That is the privilege of being the best team in the world.

Rugby Championship - Figure 3
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Pumas challenge

Erasmus has made 10 changes to his team for this weekend, which is in keeping with his selections throughout the Rugby Championship. He has used 35 players in the tournament.

Squad captain Siya Kolisi was not selected and he will act as an assistant coach, seated in the coaches’ box this weekend, to glean a better understanding of how decisions are made.

Wing Kurt-Lee Arendse returns to the starting line-up, but lock Eben Etzebeth starts on the bench, and could earn a record-equalling 127th cap.

Arendse missed the 18-12 win over New Zealand in Cape Town last time out that moved the unbeaten Springboks to within one victory of claiming a fifth Rugby Championship title.

Lock Etzebeth will equal Victor Matfield’s South African record of 127 Test caps if he comes off the bench, as coach Erasmus has switched back to a 6-2 split between forwards and backs among the replacements.

The Springboks expect it will be physical, frenetic and passionate at the Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades, and exerting control among the forwards and with territorial kicking will be key.

“The theme for us when it comes to their (Argentina) set-pieces is to expect the unexpected,” World Cup-winning prop Ox Nché told reporters.

“They have certainly grown in their forward play, and they are trying new things in the lineouts, where they can play at the front and back, and they maul as well, so they are a well-rounded team. We know it’s going to be a massive challenge.”

Battle lost or won in the forwards

Argentina have the most tries in this year’s Rugby Championship with 15, and can score from anywhere. But they understand the battle will be won or lost in the forwards.

They have made three changes to their pack from the side that routed Australia last time out, bringing in locks Pedro Rubiolo and Franco Molina in a new second row. Joaquin Oviedo comes into the team at number eight.

Argentina flyhalf Santiago Carreras in flight during The Rugby Championship against Australia at Brigadier General Estanislao Lopez Stadium on 7 September 2024 in Santa Fe, Argentina. (Photo: Gaspafotos / MB Media / Getty Images)

 “They (South Africa) have a very broad player base,” Argentina back Matias Moroni said. “They rotate players, and do it well. Nothing changes (in their level of performance).

 “At the moment everything is going well for them. Let’s try to cut that streak.” DM

 Argentina

15-Juan Cruz Mallia, 14-Bautista Delguy, 13-Lucio Cinti, 12-Santiago Chocobares, 11-Mateo Carreras, 10-Tomas Albornoz, 9-Gonzalo Bertranou, 8-Joaquin Oviedo, 7- Marcos Kremer, 6-Pablo Matera, 5-Pedro Rubiolo 4- Franco Molina, 3-Joel Sclavi, 2-Julian Montoya (captain), 1-Thomas Gallo

Reserves: 16-Ignacio Ruiz, 17-Ignacio Calles, 18-Pedro Delgado, 19-Guido Petti, 20-Juan Martin Gonzalez, 21-Gonzalo Garcia, 22-Santiago Carreras, 23-Matias Moroni.

 Springboks

15-Aphelele Fassi, 14-Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13-Jesse Kriel, 12-Lukhanyo Am, 11-Makazole Mapimpi, 10-Handré Pollard, 9-Cobus Reinach, 8-Jasper Wiese, 7-Ben-Jason Dixon, 6-Marco van Staden, 5-Ruan Nortjé, 4-Salmaan Moerat, 3-Thomas du Toit, 2-Malcolm Marx, 1-Ox Nché

Reserves: 16-Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17-Gerhard Steenekamp, 18-Vincent Koch, 19-Eben Etzebeth, 20-Elrigh Louw, 21-Kwagga Smith, 22-Jaden Hendrikse, 23-Manie Libbok.

 Referee: Christophe Ridley (Eng)

 Kick-off: 11pm SA Time (Supersport)

 Additional reporting by Reuters

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