Mbalula's failed attempt to dehorn Lesufi proves ANC's internal ...

This week, it was reported that ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula had attempted to institute disciplinary proceedings against the ANC Gauteng leader and premier Panyaza Lesufi for his criticism of the national coalition government. It was suggested that Mbalula had not properly prepared and that Lesufi had easily been able to defend himself.

While there has frequently been contestation between ANC provinces and Luthuli House, often symbolised by the secretary-general, this time it was different.

First, it was always obvious that Mbalula did not have the temperament to be the legal accounting officer of the ANC, to manage the contestation of its structures and factions.

Back in 2010, at the ANC’s national general council in Durban, it was clear Mbalula wanted this position. He had the backing of the then ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, who campaigned for an “intergenerational mix” in the ANC’s top leadership.

But when Malema was expelled in 2011, it appeared Mbalula’s hopes of ever being secretary-general were leaving with him. 

After finally winning the job in 2022, he has acted more soberly and even seems to have presidential ambitions. 

That said, he cannot escape his previous behaviour.

His consistent lying, his incompetence as a Cabinet minister and his abuse of power cannot be forgotten.

All of this made it foreseeable that when he tried to discipline Lesufi, he would be ill-prepared.

Mbalula now looks weak and, in the recent past, when the ANC secretary-general has not been in control, the party has been badly damaged.

The fact that Ace Magashule was such a weak secretary-general (before he was suspended and then expelled for trying to expel President Cyril Ramaphosa) may well have been a factor in the ANC’s recent poor electoral performance.

Certainly, without a secretary-general able to exert authority from the centre, the ANC loses cohesion. This loss of cohesion has been one of the main features of the party in the past 10 years.

The most immediate consequence of these events is that they weaken any chance Mbalula has to succeed Ramaphosa in 2027. The race to lead the ANC is wide open.

Tied to this is the discussion about the national coalition, which may dominate the ANC’s conference in 2027. Whether the party is right to work with the DA is an explosive debate, and thus the leadership election becomes caught up in it.

That the ANC has not had a proper debate about this could cause great tension within the party. Of course, holding the debate in any way would be difficult, and holding it publicly immediately after the election could have been disastrous.

That said, for those in the ANC who oppose the national coalition, the best way to end it would be to create a situation which leaves the DA with no choice but to withdraw from it.

One way to do that would be to create tension similar to what we are seeing now, where the Gauteng ANC removed the DA’s Cilliers Brink as mayor of Tshwane and elected someone else in his place.

The DA may have made this easier; its insistence that re-electing Brink was a necessary condition for a deal with the ANC appears to have been a misstep.

The national ANC is very aware of all of these dynamics. 

The presence of the party’s national spokesperson, Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri, at a briefing held by the Gauteng ANC, ActionSA, the EFF and others before the Tshwane council meeting was significant.

She read out a statement that the decision to refuse to accept the DA’s conditions had been made by the ANC’s National Working Committee.

This suggests an attempt to show that the national ANC and the Gauteng ANC are aligned. This is all about perceptions, never mind that Mbalula has said he wants the national coalition to “cascade” to local government, while Lesufi has consistently worked with the EFF (and even hinted he would prefer to work with it after the 2029 elections). 

The net result of this will surely be to embolden Lesufi. It will be hard for Mbalula to take action against him in the future, and he has shown that he can survive any consequences.

This could see him becoming more strident in his criticism of the national coalition.

That, in turn, would embolden others. In particular, the SACP leader, Solly Mapaila, who has publicly criticised the ANC’s decision to work with the DA, may feel there is no reason for him to hold back.

Managing this debate could become the most critical task facing the ANC’s national leadership.

While the ANC is losing support and appears unlikely to regain lost ground (despite the findings of a recent poll), divisions inside the party still matter. They can still determine who governs in important metros and, probably, who becomes the next President.

The upcoming debates about the coalition will be vitally important in determining our future. DM