Waiting for Mapisa-Nqakula's arrest — times of turbulence ahead

On Monday, National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula launched an urgent application at the Gauteng Division of the High Court in Pretoria arguing that she should not be arrested. This followed reports that a defence contractor made a sworn statement stating she paid Mapisa-Nqakula R2.3-million in bribes for tenders while Mapisa-Nqakula was the minister of defence.

The fact that the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) opposed her application is apparent proof that officials are planning to arrest Mapisa-Nqakula, who seems determined to dig in.

She has claimed the NPA wants to “humiliate her” but has not given any evidence of a campaign against her.

This could turn into a long fight. The ANC will probably have no choice but to defend her. Already, over the weekend President Cyril Ramaphosa said that “there is a process that must unfold”.

Last week, after it emerged that her home had been raided by members of the NPA’s Investigating Directorate, the ANC caucus rubbished attempts by DA leader John Steenhuisen to introduce the subject during Ramaphosa’s Q&A session.

However, Ramaphosa said, “We must rely on those institutions [the NPA, the police and the courts] to do their work, and when we give them space and the opportunity to do their work, then we will be successful.” 

There is an important point here.

In 2007, when the NPA was about to arrest the national police commissioner Jackie Selebi, then president Thabo Mbeki took the unprecedented step of suspending the head of the NPA, Vusi Pikoli. This was a deliberate attempt to stop Selebi’s arrest and it appeared that Mbeki was trying to protect a friend.

In the end, however, Selebi was convicted.

It is unlikely there will be such drama this time around.

Certainly, the fact that all of this has happened so publicly makes it difficult for the President — or anyone in the government — to try to intervene.

It is worth repeating how significant this situation is.

As Speaker of the National Assembly, Mapisa-Nqakula is the head of one of the three branches of the government, along with the President and the Chief Justice. She is fourth in line for the presidency should the President be unavailable.

Never before in SA has someone at this level of government faced arrest.

While she has said that she was about to retire and was not available for nomination to Parliament after the elections, she surely will fight to avoid imprisonment.

There are several reasons to believe this issue will remain front and centre for several months.

The first is that Mapisa-Nqakula has not stepped down as Speaker. Rather, she has said, unilaterally, that she has taken special leave.

As Daily Maverick’s Marianne Merten has pointed out, it is not clear that she has the power to do this.

The DA has said that the National Assembly has to take a resolution to allow her to leave office temporarily, and the party has lodged a motion of no confidence against her.

Already one opposition party has made a big misstep here.

On Friday, UDM leader Bantu Holomisa said on X and several radio stations that Mapisa-Nqakula had been arrested and was at the Pretoria Central Police Station.

Holomisa was wrong, and this important factual inaccuracy may well mean that some voters (and journalists) struggle to take him at his word.

But, for the moment, the party in a difficult position is the ANC. Mapisa-Nqakula has been in the top tier of government since 2004. She is the ultimate ANC insider, and its MPs will surely feel they cannot abandon her now.

However, to defend a person who has been arrested will have huge implications for the party’s election campaign, especially when it is trying to convince voters that it has changed.

How can the party’s canvassers on door-to-door campaigns claim the ANC has changed if the leadership defends a person who has been arrested for corruption? And this is after the ANC leader himself has said the party is perceived as “Accused No. One”.

The manner in which she may now be allowed to break or bend Parliament’s rules over her “special leave” will allow opposition parties to point out that Mapisa-Nqakula has a track record of wrongdoing.

In 2016, when she was defence minister, she sent a government plane to Burundi to bring to South Africa a young woman with a false passport.

She has not denied it, but defiantly said she would do such a thing again, under similar circumstances.

Also during her defence minister days, Mapisa-Nqakula was disciplined by Ramaphosa for allowing senior ANC officials to hitch a ride on an air force plane, so they could meet with members of Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe.

And yet, despite all of that, it was Ramaphosa and the ANC who decided she should be the Speaker of the National Assembly — the head of the legislative branch of government. 

It is of course possible that Mapisa-Nqakula resigns as Speaker.

While that would remove much of the pressure from the ANC, it would not be the end of the matter.

Her arrest, should it happen, will still be a massive story that reflects badly on the party.

But in the National Assembly, one of the people who could have to chair proceedings in her place is the chair of chairs, ANC MP Cedric Frolick. However, the ANC’s Integrity Commission has said he should not be on the party’s electoral lists because he received money from Bosasa.

This means the ANC will be accused of replacing a person arrested for corruption with someone else who faces serious questions.

The stakes are high for the NPA too. If it goes ahead with the arrest and then has to drop the charges or withdraw the case for some reason, it will be accused of political manipulation just before the elections.

The possible arrest of Mapisa-Nqakula and the almost muted reaction to it are signs of the extraordinary times in which we are living. Be prepared for unexpected events which can affect the outcome of the 29 May general election. DM