Man Utd vs Everton Prediction | Opta Analyst
We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Old Trafford with our Man Utd vs Everton prediction and preview. Will Ruben Amorim win his first home top-flight match?
Ruben Amorim’s tenure at Manchester United got off to a lightning-fast start. In fact, it took just 81 seconds for Marcus Rashford to tuck home Amad Diallo’s cross at Portman Road last Sunday.
Yet, if United fans had been hoping for an immediate transformation, they were left disappointed. Ipswich Town equalised through Omari Hutchinson’s deflected strike, and if not for a few great saves from André Onana, Amorim’s first game in charge might have ended in defeat.
But a home game against another of the Premier League’s struggling teams – Everton – presents a great chance for Amorim to get his first top-flight win on the board, and he does head into this clash with one victory under his belt already.
After scoring inside the opening minute again in Amorim’s second game in charge, United fell 2-1 behind to Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday. However, Rasmus Højlund’s double saw them claim a 3-2 win at Old Trafford, and so their tails will be up when Everton come to town.
The Toffees have only lost once in their past eight league games, but it is fair to say their fanbase is far from content with the way things have gone this season. Sean Dyche’s team have rediscovered some defensive solidity, though they have been toothless in attack.
They have not scored in their last three matches, losing 1-0 to Southampton before drawing 0-0 with West Ham and 10-man Brentford. Everton had 27 shots against the Bees last Saturday, yet accumulated just 1.2 expected goals – an average of 0.04 xG per shot. Dyche may point to plenty of attempts at goal, but the data shows they were low-quality opportunities.
Everton have failed to score in more different Premier League games than any other side this season (six). On the other hand, only two teams – Liverpool (six) and United (five) – have kept more clean sheets than the Toffees (four). Everton have already had three 0-0 draws this term, last having more in 2015-16 (four).
Both of Everton’s last two Premier League games have finished 0-0 – only once in their league history have they had three consecutive goalless draws, doing so in February 1982.
Throw in the fact that no side’s Premier League games have seen fewer goals scored this season than United’s (26), and it may be sensible not to expect too many goals in this one.
Indeed, only Southampton (nine), Crystal Palace and Everton (10) have netted fewer goals than the Red Devils (13), while just Liverpool (eight) and Arsenal (12) have conceded fewer (13).
United’s 13 goals have come from an xG of 18.3. No team is underperforming compared to their xG more than them (-5.3).
But this is Amorim’s opportunity to make a statement of intent, especially ahead of a trip to Arsenal next week. Going back to the start of last season, Amorim won all 22 of his home league games in charge of Sporting CP by an aggregate score of 72-13. United supporters will be hoping their new head coach can bring that form with him to Old Trafford.
Rashford got the first goal of Amorim’s tenure, and he is always a good bet to find the net against Everton. He has been involved in five goals in his last seven Premier League games against the Toffees (two goals, three assists), scoring in his last two. The forward is two goals away from becoming the sixth player to score 50 in the Premier League at Old Trafford for United.
Everton have struggled hugely when it comes to creativity this season, but if they are to offer a threat, then Dwight McNeil is likely to be involved.
Including crosses, only Andreas Pereira (103) has played more passes into the opposition box in the Premier League this season than McNeil (101). McNeil’s 30 chances created in 2024-25 is almost twice as many as any other Everton player (Ashley Young, 16).
Manchester United vs Everton Head-to-HeadRecent (and less-recent) history is certainly on United’s side heading into this one.
United have won 41 Premier League games against Everton, more than any side has beaten another in the competition’s history.
Everton have won just one of their last 31 Premier League away games against United (D8 L22), picking up a 1-0 victory in December 2013.
United have won their last four Premier League games against Everton, last having a longer such run between December 1999 and February 2004 (nine).
United came out on top in 57.5% of the 10,000 simulations run by Opta’s supercomputer.
Everton, on the other hand, have a win probability of just 20.4%, while the threat of a draw is at 22.1%.
Manchester United vs Everton Predicted Lineups Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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