Man City vs Man Utd Prediction | Opta Analyst
It’s derby day as Manchester City host Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium in Sunday’s headline Premier League match. Look ahead to the game with our Man City vs Man Utd prediction and preview.
A resistible force meets a movable object at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday as an astonishingly off-colour Manchester City host a Manchester United side still finding their feet under new coach Ruben Amorim.
Their respective issues make it arguably one of the most intriguing Manchester derbies in years.
Man City losing has become a regular occurrence; for the seventh time in 10 matches, Pep Guardiola’s side suffered defeat on Wednesday as they went down 2-0 to Juventus.
City’s star-studded lineup looked jaded as they attempted to ease their struggles in Turin, where Dusan Vlahovic and Weston McKennie did the damage for Juve.
Man Utd, meanwhile, head into Sunday’s derby on the back of a morale-boosting 2-1 comeback win over Viktoria Plzen in the UEFA Europa League – Rasmus Højlund was the Red Devils’ hero on Thursday.
However, they’ve lost their last two league matches. It means they’re facing the prospect of losing three in a row within a single season for the first time since December 2015 under Louis van Gaal. Furthermore, new boss Amorim has never lost three on the bounce before in his top-flight managerial career, with this his 172nd such match.
Amorim has, of course, already defeated City this season. His Sporting CP team ran out 4-1 victors in the Champions League in November, shortly after he’d been confirmed as Erik ten Hag’s replacement.
As such, a rare feat is potentially within his grasp: only one manager has ever beaten the reigning Premier League champions with two different sides in a single campaign. That was Alan Pardew, who beat Man City with both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace in 2014-15.
Aiding Amorim’s chances of managing such an achievement is the fact City have been leaking plenty of goals lately.
They’ve conceded at least twice in seven of their last 11 Premier League games (W4 D3 L4), as many times as they had in their previous 62 in the competition.
That said, it’s not as though United don’t have weaknesses of their own at the back; 39% of their goals conceded in the Premier League this season have come from corner situations (7/18), the highest share in the division. Over the full calendar year, they’ve conceded 15 goals from corners, just three fewer than they did in 2021 (eight), 2022 (four) and 2023 (six) combined.
Then there’s also the risky approach of goalkeeper André Onana, who was at fault for Plzen’s goal in Thursday’s Europa League contest. He’s made two errors leading directly to a goal this season, with just six goalkeepers having made more such mistakes of those in Europe’s top five leagues (in all competitions).
Bruno Fernandes helped Højlund spare Onana’s blushes with a clever free-kick for the Dane’s winner against Plzen, and he has come into form under Amorim.
After registering just two goal involvements (two assists) in his nine Premier League games under Ten Hag this season, Fernandes has had a hand in six in his last six outings since the Dutchman’s departure (three goals, three assists). The Portuguese star has also been involved in five goals in his last six appearances against City in all competitions (two goals, two assists), providing an assist in each of the last three.
If City are to get back on track, getting Erling Haaland firing on all cylinders again would help. The good news is he has an excellent record against United.
In four Premier League Manchester derbies, Haaland has tallied nine goal involvements (six goals, three assists). It’s already the most goal involvements any City player has against United in the competition.
Phil Foden, meanwhile, has scored six goals in his last four Premier League appearances against United. Only Sergio Agüero (eight) has scored more Manchester derby goals in the competition for City than Foden (six, level with Haaland).
Man City vs Man Utd Head-to-HeadUnited have lost 20 Premier League games to Man City – only against Arsenal (21) have they lost more in the competition.
The Red Devils have lost each of their last three Premier League trips to City, conceding 13 goals in the process. They last lost four consecutive league visits to their neighbours between 1952 and 1955.
City have won five of their last six Premier League games against United (L1), more than they had in their previous 13 (W4 D3 L6).
Man City vs Man Utd PredictionFor all their failings as of late, City are still predicted to come out as top dogs in Manchester this weekend.
Guardiola’s team won 57.0% of the data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, which hands United a 22.2% win probability. The threat of a draw is 20.8%.
Manchester City vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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