Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction | Opta Analyst
Look ahead to this Premier League game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Brighton prediction and preview.
Arne Slot will be looking to make Liverpool history when his side host Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday.
After Liverpool fought back twice to draw 2-2 at fellow title hopefuls Arsenal last Sunday in a pulsating Premier League clash, Slot has a record of seven wins, one draw and just a solitary defeat through his first nine Premier League games. Were he to claim three points against the Seagulls, he would become the manager with the most top-flight wins through their first 10 games in charge of the club.
Liverpool have been trailing for just 75 minutes and 28 seconds in the Premier League this term, a record bettered only by Arsenal (41m 48s). While behind, Liverpool have faced only two shots and given up an xG of just 0.3 per 90, both league-low figures.
Mohamed Salah, who scored the Reds’ second equaliser last week, has historically been a dangerman against the Seagulls. The Egyptian superstar has 15 goal involvements in 14 Premier League games against them, scoring nine and assisting six. The only team he has a better record against for goal involvements in the competition is Manchester United (18).
Salah has been in superb form under Slot in the early stages of the campaign, contributing six goals and five assists. That’s an involvement of 65% in Liverpool’s Premier League goals this term (11/17), the best ratio for any player in the top flight thus far.
Brighton have also excelled under a new head coach in 31-year-old Fabian Hürzeler, and are sixth despite conceding twice late on to draw 2-2 with Wolves last weekend.
Variety has really been the spice of life for the Seagulls, with Brighton having more different goalscorers (nine) than any other top-flight side. Danny Welbeck has notched six of their goals and his next Premier League strike will see him become their joint-top goalscorer in the competition on 30, level with Pascal Groß.
If Welbeck were to score against Liverpool, it would see him score in four straight Premier League matches for the first time in his career. Indeed, his six goals so far this season already represents his joint-best for the Seagulls, while he has only managed more in a campaign with Manchester United (scoring nine in both 2011-12 and 2013-14).
Brighton have been pretty clinical this season, scoring 16 times from an xG of 13.2. Leicester City (13 goals, 9.1 xG) and Wolves (12 goals, 8.9 xG) are the only teams to have overperformed more in terms of goals to xG.
These two played out something of a dress rehearsal on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup fourth round. Liverpool advanced to the quarter-finals on the south coast as 3-2 winners at the Amex Stadium. Cody Gakpo scored twice for the visitors before Luis Díaz added a late third. Simon Adingra and Tariq Lamptey found the net for Brighton late on.
Liverpool will not have Diogo Jota back before the November international break, while Alisson, Harvey Elliott and Federico Chiesa also remain sidelined.
Brighton will hope to have Yankuba Minteh and Jack Hinshelwood available, but Lewis Dunk, Matt O’Riley, James Milner, Adam Webster and Joao Pedro will all be absent.
Liverpool won their first six Premier League encounters against Brighton, but have since won just two of the previous eight (D4 L2).
While the Reds did win last season’s corresponding fixture 2-1, the Seagulls have taken five points from their past four visits to Anfield – more than they managed in their first 11 trips to Anfield.
Brighton have actually opened the scoring in each of the past four Premier League encounters between the sides, but have won only one of those matches (D2 L1).
Liverpool vs Brighton PredictionLiverpool are clear favourites with the Opta supercomputer in this contest, triumphing in 64.1% of the 10,000 simulations conducted.
Brighton were victorious only 17.2% of the time, while the two sides drew in 18.7% of the outcomes.
Regarding the season as a whole, Liverpool are second in the actual table and have a 52.1% chance of finishing there come the end of the campaign. They are statistically more likely to finish third (26.1%) than top of the table (16.9%).
Brighton are riding high in sixth and have a 14.1% chance of remaining there. The Seagulls’ outcomes are a little less predictable, with seventh (15%) the most likely as things stand.
Liverpool vs Brighton Predicted Lineups Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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