UFC 305: Israel Adesanya vs. Dricus Du Plessis Head-to-Toe ...
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Dricus Du Plessis (left) and Israel Adesanya face off before their UFC 305 title fight in Perth, AustraliaWill Russell/Zuffa LLC
Saturday's UFC 305 event will mark the promotion's annual stop in Australia, and fans in the host city of Perth are in for a treat.
The card features some huge fights involving some of Australia and New Zealand's best fighters, most notably Nigerian-born Kiwi Israel Adesanya, who will attempt to recapture the middleweight belt from South Africa's Dricus Du Plessis in the headliner.
Adesanya is considered one of the best middleweights in MMA history, but he lost the title with a shock decision defeat to Sean Strickland last year.
Strickland then surrendered the belt with a decision loss to Du Plessis this past January, which paved the way for this weekend's showdown at the RAC Arena.
Interestingly, Adesanya was originally supposed to fight Du Plessis this time last year, when the UFC last touched down in Australia. It was only when the South African was unable to commit to the fight due to nagging injuries that the opportunity went to Strickland.
The stakes will be high for both men when they step into the Octagon this weekend—and not just because the middleweight belt will be on the line. They share one of the fiercest rivalries in MMA today as two of the foremost fighters from Africa, and they will look to settle that rivalry once and for all in Perth.
It's a fight that could go either way and end in the blink of an eye.
Keep reading to see how Du Plessis and Adesanya match up on paper and for our best shot at a prediction.
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Adesanya knocked out Alex Pereira in April 2023.Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Du Plessis has big power in his hands and legs, and despite the fact that he tends to move around the Octagon like his shoelaces are tied together, he is pretty good at mixing up his shots and setting up combos.
The 30-year-old is a good if somewhat unconventional striker with nine knockouts or TKOs on his record to prove it.
In a striking match with Adesanya, however, he is wholly outmatched.
The 35-year-old is a former Glory kickboxer and easily one of the greatest strikers in MMA history. While he might not possess the same power as Du Plessis shot-for-shot, he is far more technical and far more experienced against world-class strikers, having most famously fought UFC light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira twice in kickboxing and twice in MMA.
However, the more likely result of a striking match between them is that Adesanya floats just out of the champ's range and either jabs and counters enough to win a decision, or knocks him out with something like the check-hook he used to finish Robert Whittaker in 2019.
Edge: Adesanya
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Du Plessis reacts after submitting Darren Till in December 2022.Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Because Adesanya is such a great striker, we see almost nothing of his ground game. Sure, we've seen plenty of his grappling defense as he has looked to fight off his opponents' takedown attempts, but with such effective stand-up, he doesn't often look to end fights with submissions.
That's not the case for Du Plessis.
The South African is extremely well-rounded, with 10 submission wins to counterbalance his nine wins by knockout or TKO, most notably a 2022 rear-naked choke against former welterweight title challenger Darren Till.
In fact, since joining the UFC, Du Plessis has attempted just shy of one submission per 15 minutes spent in the Octagon, per UFC Stats.
Considering Adesanya has never won a fight by submission and only attempts a paltry 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes in the Octagon, there is no debate here.
Du Plessis is the far greater submission threat in this middleweight title fight.
Edge: Du Plessis
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Du Plessis lands a takedown against Sean Strickland in January 2024.Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Du Plessis' proven submission game will be useless against Adesanya if he isn't able to get their fight to the ground with his takedowns. The good news for the South African is that he is an extremely effective wrestler.
According to UFC Stats, Du Plessis lands an average of three takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, which effectively works out to one takedown per five-minute round. That is pretty good.
His takedown game was on full display in his title-winning effort against Sean Strickland in January, during which he got the fight to the mat an impressive six times in 25 minutes. He also completed at least one takedown in all of his recent fights with Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson and Darren Till.
In other words, Adesanya's takedown defense will have to be on point in Perth. At present, his takedown defense rate sits at a solid 77 per cent, which suggests he should be able to thwart some but not all of the shots coming his way.
One way or the other, it's clear he is the inferior wrestler in this matchup.
Edge: Du Plessis
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Adesanya (left) faces off with Du Plessis in the Octagon in July 2023.Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Du Plessis: Youth
Despite all his experience, Du Plessis is still just 30 years old—five years Adesanya's junior.
While it wouldn't be totally accurate to call him a young fighter, he still has a lot of career ahead of him, whereas Adesanya has reached the point when many fighters begin to slow down and struggle with durability.
The former champion hasn't shown any glaring signs of decline, but he is clearly in the final chapter of his career and will be facing a fighter who is firmly in his prime.
These things matter in MMA.
Adesanya: A Hard-Earned Break
As mentioned, Adesanya is 35 years old and probably only has a few good years of competition left if he's lucky.
He also has more mileage on his body than the average 35-year-old fighter, having endured a long and taxing kickboxing career before arriving in the UFC, where he maintained one of the busiest schedules of competition of any champion ever.
In fact, some fans believe it was Adesanya's hectic schedule that led to his shock loss to Strickland last year; the theory being that he was simply burnt out.
One way or the other, Adesanya has had a nice, long break heading into UFC 305, having not fought in roughly a year. That layoff has not only given him time to recover from the lingering injuries that trouble all fighters, but also to rest and refocus his mind.
That could be bad news for Du Plessis.
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Adesanya celebrates after knocking out Alex Pereira in April 2023.Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Former UFC middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, who has fought both Adesanya and Du Plessis, referred to the UFC 305 main event as a "50-50" fight.
It's hard to disagree.
Both guys have clear paths to victory. Du Plessis could plow forward and use his clubbing punches to set up takedowns, which he can use to control position, land ground and pound, and quite possibly lock up a submission.
Adesanya, meanwhile, could use his proven takedown defense to turn this into a striking match, at which point he has the skills to win by decision or knockout.
Neither outcome would be a shock, but the latter seems slightly more likely.
Look for Adesanya to fight off some early takedowns before getting to work with his striking. The challenger will use jabs and kicks to keep the hard-charging champ at bay, and he will put an end to things with a punch—or a bunch of them—before the judges are needed.
Prediction: Adesanya by TKO, Rd. 3
