Iran Fears an Israeli Trap Aiming to Drag It into a Regional War

Iran and Hizbullah supporters challenge Israeli vehicles in southern Lebanon, May 2023, Kafr Kila, southern Lebanon. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

Iran fears that Israel is setting a trap for both Tehran and Hizbullah, intending to provoke them into a regional conflict.

Such a war, according to Iranian leaders, would grant Israel international legitimacy to strike a decisive and potentially devastating blow against them.

The Iranian directive to Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah remains clear: adhere to the strategy of a war of attrition against Israel and maintain the “unity of the ring of fire” without deviating from this approach.

From the outset of the conflict, it has been evident that Iran seeks to avoid a full-scale confrontation between Hizbullah and Israel.

Instead, Tehran’s strategy involves drawing Israel into a prolonged war of attrition through its proxies across the Middle East, weakening Israel economically and militarily over time. This way, Iran minimizes its direct involvement, keeping itself at a distance while fighting Israel via its allies.

Tehran will engage Israel until the last Palestinian or Shiite fighter breathes his last, with Iran’s leadership—the “head of the octopus”—remaining intact even if some of its tentacles are lost.

Iranian President Masoud Pazashekian, speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York on September 22, 2024, made clear that “Iran will not fall into the trap of war.” He emphasized, “We know more than anyone that if a large-scale war erupts in the Middle East, it will benefit no one.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arkaji echoed these sentiments, declaring that Iran is in a state of “full vigilance” and will not be lured into conflict by Israel. He pointed to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil as an attempt “to provoke us into a larger conflict.”

The memory of the Iran-Iraq war looms large in the Iranian psyche. Lasting from 1980 to 1988, this grueling conflict claimed between 500,000 and one million lives, the majority of them Iranian.

Iran, at that time, fought a war of attrition with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, which sought to annex the oil-rich Khuzestan province. Ultimately, no territorial changes occurred, and Iran paid a heavy price, teaching it to be cautious about future wars.

Now, Iran fears Israel’s intentions to drag Hizbullah into an all-out military confrontation, aiming to gain international support to destroy Hizbullah’s extensive arsenal, supplied by Iran over many years.

Iran also worries that Israel may then shift its focus to the Iranian nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, crippling the Iranian economy in the process.

Iran believes that if Donald Trump wins the next U.S. presidential election, he will likely back Israel’s plan. To counter this, Tehran is doing everything possible to bolster Kamala Harris’s chances of being elected president.

A war with Israel could severely damage Iran’s already fragile economy. President Pazashekian has made economic improvement a priority of his administration.

Following Israel’s recent attack on the Yemeni port of Hodeida, Iran now recognizes that its oil infrastructure is vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes, which could cause significant damage.

Thus, Tehran’s message to Nasrallah is to stay the course—continue the war of attrition against Israel, even if it means absorbing Israeli attacks.

In the end, Nasrallah relies on Iranian military support, even if Israel manages to reduce Hizbullah’s missile and rocket capabilities significantly.

Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Iran has heavily invested in Hizbullah’s military, positioning it as a “front line” defense against potential Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Although Nasrallah may hold independent views and is known to disagree with Tehran occasionally, he must ultimately align with Iran’s strategic interests.

Sources in Lebanon report that General Ismail Qa’ani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force and Qassem Soleimani’s successor, visited Nasrallah’s bunker in the al Dahya neighborhood of Beirut a few months ago. During the 2006 Hizbullah-Israel war, Soleimani and terrorist commander Imad Mughniyeh spent 33 days in Nasrallah’s bunker dodging Israeli bombs.

A painting of Imad Mughniyeh (left), briefing Hassan Nasrallah and Qasem Soleimani with a map showing military maneuvers from the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

During Qa’ani’s visit, he relayed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s instructions, reinforcing that Nasrallah must not deviate from the strategy of attrition without explicit approval.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders, orchestrating the war from Tehran, believe that Israel never planned for prolonged warfare. Since its founding, Israel has relied on short, decisive conflicts to shift the battles onto enemy territory and secure swift victories.

Now, after dealing with multiple fronts for more than a year, Iran believes that Israel is weakening—economically, militarily, and morally. According to Tehran, Israel’s global political standing is in a state of decline.