What does the defection of the EFF's Shivambu to MK party mean ...

Floyd Shivambu. (Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)

News broke on Thursday that Floyd Shivambu has resigned as deputy president of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). This development raises questions about its effect on political parties outside of the government of national unity (GNU). 

Media reports suggest that EFF leader Julius Malema and Shivambu had a falling out after “Shivambu was approached by a group of wealthy businesspeople who allegedly promised him a lot of money to fund his campaign to contest Malema at the party’s elective congress in December.” This reportedly led to Shivambu’s resignation on Wednesday evening, followed by his announcement that he was joining the recently formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, led by former ANC president Jacob Zuma. 

After the formation of the unity government following the 29 May general elections, the parties outside the GNU created what they called “a progressive caucus”, which initially consisted of seven parties but eventually dwindled to just four: the EFF, African Transformation Movement and the MK party. Al-Jama-ah, the Pan Africanist Congress, and the United Democratic Movement left to join the unity government. With Shivambu joining the MK party, questions arise about how this alliance will play out. 

Speculation abounds regarding whether Shivambu will hold a senior position in the MK party. One scenario suggests that tensions may arise within the newly formed alliance. Malema, having lost another strong ally — someone he considered a “brother” — may be deeply concerned that Shivambu was willing to contest his leadership. The EFF, built around Malema’s personality, might struggle to shift from a leader around whom many have rallied. Moreover, justifying an alliance with the MK party, which took the EFF’s co-founder, could prove challenging. 

This situation could leave the “progressive caucus” more fractured than before. With the ANC forming a relationship with the Democratic Alliance, which is viewed as more centre-right, there is a pressing need for a strong, united opposition to curb the power and influence the ANC and DA will hold in parliament as a result of the GNU. This division could also split the 23% voting power the EFF and MK party held in parliament. 

But both the MK party and the EFF have strong leaders who have historically backed each other, even dismissing wrongdoings in the VBS Mutual Bank heist. The former chair of VBS, Tshifhiwa Matodzi, in a leaked affidavit alleged that Malema and Shivambu were involved in the looting of the bank, with their share being R16.1 million. 

With Zuma now 82 years old, he will be 87 by the 2029 elections. It is unlikely he will have the capacity to run a full campaign and compete with many of his younger counterparts. This opens the door for Shivambu to take the lead and set a vision of his own. While this is speculative, it offers a hopeful future for those in the country who support their views.

That said, as seen in the 2024 election, the unexpected growth of the MK party significantly stifled the EFF’s growth. This means that both the MK party and the EFF are now contesting the same support base. Unless these parties can mobilise more people to vote for them and find ways to differentiate themselves, it is unlikely that this contestation will lead to a positive partnership. 

Moreover, with funders willing to back a campaign against Malema and the EFF not experiencing the growth it once expected, the party may be on a steady decline, leaving Malema isolated. 

He has already acknowledged that members of the party are likely to resign because of their loyalty to Floyd Shivambu. At the moment, the EFF does not appear to be strengthening but rather weakening. But the MK party also faces similar volatility — such as the sacking of 18 of its MPs and the resignation, rehiring and firing of its secretary general Arthur Zwane — and relies heavily on loyalty to Zuma. In addition, the lack of solidified policies, succession plans and a concrete manifesto, the longevity of the MK party remains uncertain. 

As we come to terms with the new political landscape that has arisen after Shivambu’s announcement, we must ask ourselves: has this development furthered the “progressive caucus” or will it lead to a regression that allows the dominance of more centre-right parties?

Khumo Kumalo is the founder of the website Misunderstood, which unpacks social, identity and economic issues in South Africa, and a student at Morehouse College, studying political science. He is also a Mail & Guardian 200 Young South Africans 2024 winner.