Fantasy Premier League: Why should you back 'the template'?

13 Aug 2024

For serious Fantasy Premier League managers, the early season template is an important factor when starting out in Gameweek 1.

Fantasy Premier League - Figure 1
Photo The Athletic

Many will never have considered the ownership percentages of their players and may be wondering why the template is important or not.

So, what is the template for Gameweek 1 and why should we be considering aligning with it to some degree at the start of the season?

Want to stay up to date with the best news and features as the PL season kicks off? Sign up (for free) to The Athletic FC newsletter What do we mean by ‘the template’?

The template in FPL is simply a team of the most-selected players in the game. There is some negativity around following the template, as it feels like a dull approach.

This season, we are set for a bigger variation, given the much higher price point of Erling Haaland (£15m), which will prevent him from starting the season in 80 per cent of sides, as he did in 2023-24.

There feels like a broader choice of playing strategies, which has been amplified by the new rules, which allow managers to bank up to five free transfers.

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We need to be mindful that the template emerges for a reason: managers identify players given their previous form, fixture difficulty and points potential. So it’s not surprising the assets that tick all of these boxes become popular.

Can you afford not to pick Haaland? (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Given the luck involved in the game and these predictions, the template will not always deliver in the opening stages of the season, but embracing it will allow you to keep pace with other managers.

The compromise is selecting differentials as well as the core picks from the template and then diversifying your line-up and strategy as the season progresses.

Fantasy Premier League - Figure 2
Photo The Athletic

It’s not essential to pick all the highly owned players in the template; if you have reason to believe an alternative option is better, back your decision and potentially reap the rewards.

A points haul from an overlooked differential can bring the ultimate bragging rights in mini-leagues, but those punts are far more likely to blank than bang.

Don’t try to be different just for the sake of it though, as you can easily lose significant ground on your rivals and be on the back foot.

Who is in the Gameweek 1 template team?

A small disclaimer to start here: the template does shift throughout pre-season as information emerges on movement in the transfer window and player availability after summer tournaments. This was correct at the time of writing.

Arsenal’s David Raya (£5.5m) has emerged as the goalkeeper of choice, in over 20 per cent of sides, despite his premium price tag. He kept 16 clean sheets last season, including seven in his final 10 games.

Matt Turner (£4m) is the go-to backup goalkeeper, due to being the highest-scoring goalkeeper at this price point last season, but it’s unlikely he sees any minutes for Nottingham Forest this season. He’s expected to be their third choice.

Arsenal centre-back William Saliba (£6m) headlines the defence, in nearly 40 per cent of sides, but I prefer the goal threat of team-mates Ben White (£6.5m) and Gabriel (£6m).

The Arsenal defender ownerships are much more varied among the elite player pool between this pair. Having some investment in a side that kept 18 clean sheets last season will be key.

Manchester City’s Josko Gvardiol (£6m) is well backed, in around one-third of sides, having finished last campaign in fantastic form. He was the highest-scoring Fantasy player in the final nine gameweeks of the season, with six goal involvements. He had more shots on target than any other defender last season, with 14.

Fantasy Premier League - Figure 3
Photo The Athletic

Pedro Porro (£5.5m) completes a premium defence in this 3-4-3 formation, having produced 11 goal involvements last campaign. His role in set pieces made him fixture-proof last season. He’s been selected by around 25 per cent of managers for the upcoming season.

Pedro Porro is available for £5.5m (Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images)

We should be mindful that a change in the bonus points system for goals conceded by defenders could dent the 20 bonus points he earned last campaign — we will need to see a significant improvement in the Spurs back line for clean-sheet potential.

Porro just edges out mid-priced defender options Dan Burn (£4.5m) and Joachim Andersen (£4.5m), who have the potential to provide value. Burn in particular has been a popular pick among managers within the FPL community, whereas Porro is less-fancied.

Promoted defenders Taylor Harwood-Bellis (£4m) and Wout Faes (£4m) are the bench picks to make this squad affordable.

Moving into the midfield, and last season’s highest-scoring player, Cole Palmer (£10.5m) is owned by nearly half of FPL managers, despite picking up the biggest price rise in fantasy history.

He was the highest-scoring player over the final nine gameweeks of last season by some margin, scooping up a total of 35 goal involvements for the season, but his late involvement with England at the Euros does raise questions on his availability for Gameweek 1, with elite managers looking elsewhere.

Anthony Gordon (£7.5m) is in nearly a third of current drafts, following 27 goal involvements in his breakout season for Newcastle United. He’s even more popular among elite managers, with 71 per cent ownership across a 100-team sample of first drafts I looked at.

Fantasy Premier League - Figure 4
Photo The Athletic

Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) is the big premium pick, with great utility for captaincy in each of his opening three fixtures. His ownership compared to Haaland is marginal for the template right now and it’s impossible to fit both in with the high price tags of the other popular players.

It’s worth noting that, across elite managers, Salah’s ownership is over 80 per cent, with around half of those managers also choosing to double up with Haaland, making compromises elsewhere in their squads to incorporate two heavy hitters.

Eberechi Eze (£7m) is also in a third of sides, having finished last season in fine form as part of a Crystal Palace side rejuvenated under Oliver Glasner. Michael Olise, who has joined Bayern Munich, will be a big miss, although it does mean more set-piece responsibility for Eze, which may work in his favour.

Phil Foden (£9.5m) and Bukayo Saka (£10m) narrowly miss out on selection here to make the budget work, with Leicester City’s Harry Winks (£4.5m) the budget fifth midfielder to have on the bench.

Moving into the attack, there are no funds for Haaland, who is only the third-most selected forward in the game, behind Ollie Watkins (£9m) and Alexander Isak (£8.5m), who each are around the 50 per cent ownership mark.

Within the FPL community, Isak is deemed essential given his 18 big chances on goal in the final 10 games of last season. He is on penalty duty with Callum Wilson (£7m) injured, facing promoted Southampton at home in Gameweek 1.

Watkins was the most consistent player in the game last season, with 37 goal involvements from 37 starts.

Joao Pedro (£5.5m) is winning the race to be the budget forward after Brighton put together a string of impressive performances under Fabian Hurzeler in pre-season. He’s set for regular minutes through the middle of their attack and should be on penalties.

Inputting this XI of the template team into the Fantasy Football Hub My Team Tool gives an AI Gameweek 1 Rating of 91 per cent and an overall Team Rating of 94 per cent.

At the time of writing, its AI-predicted points give a Gameweek 1 score of 65.0, which is not far off the AI Best GW1 Team, which is predicted to score 69.4 points, sharing six common players: Raya, Gvardiol, Salah, Gordon, Eze and Isak.

(Top photo: Peter Powell/AFP via Getty Images)

Holly Shand (@HollyShand on Twitter) is a Fantasy Premier League pundit who has played the game for over eight years. She has finished in the Top 100K on six occasions, twice finishing in the Top 10K. She is a regular guest on the Official FPL Show. Follow Holly on Twitter @HollyShand

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