Everton Football Club had their biggest win of the season on Monday and they didn’t even play a game. The Toffees won their appeal to have their point deduction reduced from 10 points to six, which boosted them from 17th-place to 15th. More importantly it gives Everton a five-point cushion between them and the relegation zone.
The Toffees will look to build on the momentum with a win (on the pitch) against West Ham United on Saturday morning (10 a.m. ET).
Everton is a +110 favorite on the three-way money line.
West Ham United vs. Everton prediction: Analysis
If you look at these two teams at face value it may seem odd that Everton is a clear favorite in this tilt. West Ham checks into this match seven places and eight points (not including the deduction) ahead of the Toffees in the standings and the Hammers are coming off an impressive, rot-stopping win over Brentford on Monday Night Football.
But a quick peek under the hood tells a very different story. The first thing that’s worth noting is that the two clubs have identical -6 goal differences, which right away is a clue that they’re probably closer than the gap in the standings may suggest. Beyond that, Everton has the better expected goal difference (xGD), and it’s not particularly close.
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Despite their pedestrian results, Everton sit with a +2.8 xGD, which is good enough for the seventh-best mark in the Premier League. West Ham, meanwhile, ranks 16th with a -11.9 xGD. Normally, a team with that kind of gap in their expected goals is in the relegation scrap. But soccer is funky sometimes.
West Ham has played a ton of high-event matches this season (86 total goals on 82 expected goals), but Everton go about things quite differently. The Toffees will want to keep this match tidy and look to be able to get at a West Ham defense that ranks near the bottom of the Premier League in expected goals and shots allowed per match.
I like Everton’s chances to get this match on their terms and punish West Ham. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Everton win this going away.
West Ham United vs. Everton prediction: Analysis
The Bet: Everton -1.5 (+285, DraftKings)
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