Everton vs Southampton: Opposition Analysis | Opportunity Knocks ...

Everton fans enjoying a spell away from the team during the recent international break were brought right back down again, in an emotional sense, at the weekend. Everton blew another two-goal lead in losing on the road to Aston Villa, the first time a club has managed to do so in consecutive games in the Premier League era — prior to which football appears seemingly to have existed in a quasi-fantastical, unquantifiable state.

With pressure mounting on Sean Dyche given the team’s woeful start to the season, he and the Blues need to start picking up some wins, in order to avoid being marooned at the bottom of the table. The next run of fixtures, stretching to early December, offers up plenty of opportunities to amass some points.

In the meantime, the EFL Cup offers up a timely distraction from the club’s league woes. Arriving at Goodison Park for tonight’s meeting are newly-promoted Southampton.

Form

The Saints splashed more than €147m during the 2022/23 season in a desperate - but ultimately failed effort - at staving off relegation. They then recouped €166m in shedding a host of first team players in order to absorb the financial shock of life in the English second tier, but were able to achieve promotion at the first time of asking, via the playoff route, after finishing fourth under new manager Russell Martin.

In preparation for their return to top tier football, Southampton backed their boss to the tune of a net €76m last summer. The most significant departees were long-time Everton target Che Adams, to Torino on a free transfer, along with young Argentine Carlos Alcaraz, who headed back to South America (Flamengo, €18m) and forward Sekhou Mara, sold to Strasbourg for €12m.

Incoming were a host of players — 18 in all. Among the most prominent so far this season have been West Ham midfielder Flynn Downes (€17.9m), Manchester City defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis (made permanent for €23m, following a loan spell), AZ Alkmaar fullback Yukinari Sugawara (€7m) and another former Blues target - Ben Brereton-Diaz - signed from Villarreal for €8.3m. A late addition was made in Arsenal’s former starting goalkeeper, Aaron Ramsdale, secured for a fee of €21.4m.

The Saints concede from a set-piece against United at the weekend Photo by GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images

The newcomers have found the Premier League a tough prospect in the early stages of the campaign. They somehow lost the opening fixture, away at Newcastle United, after largely dominating, but could make no impression the following weekend, going down meekly 1-0 to Nottingham Forest at St Mary’s Stadium. A heavily rotated lineup saw off struggling Championship outfit Cardiff City in the EFL Cup, in an eight-goal thriller, but they’ve been beaten heavily in their last two league outings, shipping a combined six goals against Brentford and Manchester United.

Style of Play

Martin experimented with his formations last term, even switching to a back three in two of their three playoff games, after using a 4-3-3 almost exclusively during the second half of the campaign. This season, he’s retained that successful 3-5-2 system in the opening three league matches, but switched to a 4-2-3-1 for last weekend’s 3-0 home defeat to the Red Devils.

The 38-year-old is firmly wedded to his principles, which is to commit to a passing, possession game, backed by intense pressing — so very much in vogue with current tactical thinking. His MK Dons side famously holds a record for the highest number of passes completed in a goal-scoring move, at 56.

The former Scottish international is on record as saying he probably wouldn’t have entered management unless he was able to set up his teams to play in the style he personally preferred, as a player. At his previous clubs - MK Dons and Swansea City - Martin achieved improved league finishes in his sophomore season with each, but hit the ground running immediately with the Saints.

He’s spoken of being prepared for the expected criticism he’ll receive should Southampton end up giving up goals through their style of play, which has already occurred. In many ways this is commendable, as why should a promoted side automatically be expected to play in a conservative way? Pundits likes to point out the likes of Burnley, who went straight back down attempting an expansive style last season, but fail to mention the preponderance of sides who set up pragmatically, yet get relegated anyway.

Teenage winger Dibling tormented United’s experienced defender Diogo Dalot on Saturday Photo by Zohaib Alam - MUFC/Manchester United via Getty Images

Southampton will attempt to play out from the back and through any press, no matter how active. They’ll look to recycle possession and try to work for openings, while getting plenty of players forward in support. Their full backs will bomb forward and look to provide overlaps and overloads. When play breaks down, the South Coast outfit will immediately counter-press, in order to regain the ball as quickly as possible.

Amazingly, the promoted side ranks second - behind Manchester City - in both numbers of passes attempted and completion percentage. Southampton are third in share of possession, with 62.0%. Only 5% of their passes are played long.

Player Assessment

Downes operates as a fulcrum in midfield, boasting 78.5 touches per game and a pass completion of 92.4%. He’s making 1.75 key passes (those leading to an attempt on goal) per 90 minutes, but is also active without the ball, amassing a combined 4.75 tackles and interceptions and 1.25 blocked passes per match.

In his first start last weekend, teenager Tyler Dibling made an impression. The 18-year-old has attempted a surely unsustainable ten dribbles per 90 (with a 42.9% success rate) and 2.86 carries into the opposition area (earning a penalty kick against United). The right winger is generating an outlandish 8.64 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per game.

Solution

Southampton will be focused on their league campaign this season and will probably rotate their lineup tonight, as may Everton. Their style of play will remain consistent, however, though many changes will surely prove to be more disruptive to playing out of defence and triggering precise pressing actions, than to Dyche’s more stripped down approach.

We can expect a number of alterations to the bedraggled outfit that was comprehensively outplayed by Villa on Saturday — the 3-2 scoreline being highly flattering of Everton’s efforts. Jake O’Brien, Orel Mangala, Jesper Lindstrom and James Garner will surely be handed starting opportunities under the Goodison lights. I’d expect Joao Virginia to be given a chance too, with Jordan Pickford way off last season’s form currently.

We should get a decent look at Mangala tonight Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Who else figures could be highly instructive as to where they stand in the manager’s reckoning. Abdoulaye Doucoure - a Dyche favourite previously - has been in and out of the Toffees side so far. Young full back Roman Dixon could be granted the chance to accrue some valuable game time against top-flight opposition, albeit in a relatively low-risk cup tie. Dominic Calvert-Lewin should be rested, in favour of Beto, who has played only 47 league minutes to date, but does Dyche trust the big striker at all? I’m not seeing it.

I can see Everton ceding territory, enjoying very little possession, but looking to capitalize on breakdowns in Southampton’s ball-control system. The Saints looked naive defending set-pieces against United, so attacks in transition and dead ball situations appear to be the hosts’ most likely route to goal. I’m not sure how much cutting edge the visitors have, so hopefully Everton’s so-far leaky defence may not be tested to the degree it has so far in the league.

Predication: Everton 2-1 Southampton

Stats provided courtesy of fbref.com, whoscored.com and transfermarkt.co.uk