Everton vs Chelsea Prediction | Opta Analyst
Chelsea are favourites with the Opta supercomputer to claim three points in the Premier League on Sunday, but Everton have a good recent home record against the Blues. Look ahead to the game at Goodison Park with our Everton vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Chelsea face a stern test of their title-challenging credentials when they visit Everton on Sunday.
The Blues have won just one of their past six visits to Goodison Park, while Everton’s home form overall this season has seen a marked improvement after a turbulent start.
Sean Dyche’s men lost their first two home games of the campaign, conceding three in both matches, but have since gone five unbeaten on home turf (W2 D3), keeping three clean sheets and conceding only twice.
While the wins have not exactly been flowing, Everton are a tough side to break down and have had four goalless draws this term, more than any other side. It already represents their most in a single campaign since the 2015-16 season (also four), while they haven’t had more since the 2008-09 campaign (five).
Moreover, only rivals Liverpool (seven) have registered more clean sheets than Everton’s six this term, albeit the Toffees have also failed to score in the most different games (eight).
But that stoic resistance will be put to the test against high-flying Chelsea, who since the start of May have scored more goals (51), won more games (15), and earned more points (49) in the top flight than any other side.
In contrast to Everton’s struggles in front of goal, no team has scored in more matches than Enzo Maresca’s side this season (15) and the Blues have scored more goals (37) than anyone else too. They added another five in the Conference League in midweek, too, taking their tally in that competition to 26 after just six games.
With victory over Brentford last weekend, Chelsea are now on a run of five straight Premier League wins. Not since November 2019 under Frank Lampard have they won more consecutive fixtures (six).
Goodison is a tough place to go right now, but Chelsea have the most away wins (6), most away points (19), and most away goals (23) in the top flight this season. Their tally of 23 away goals ranks as the third highest after eight away games in a single Premier League campaign behind Liverpool in 2021-22 (26) and Manchester City in 2011-12 (25).
Chelsea will be in the top two at Christmas regardless of other results this weekend. It’ll be the the first time they will have managed that since 2016-17, when they were top at that stage. The Blues have gone on to lift the title on the previous five occasions they were top at Christmas but they have never won the league when second on 25 December (1998-99, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2008-09).
It’s no secret that Cole Palmer has been Chelsea’s main dangerman. With 57 shots and 44 chances created, he is the only player to have been involved in over 100 attempts in the Premier League this season.
Palmer could play in his 50th Premier League game for Chelsea this weekend – with 33 goals and 17 assists, he already ranks as the fourth player to have 50-plus goal involvements in his first 50 games for a club in the competition (Erling Haaland 62 with Manchester City, Andrew Cole 57 with Newcastle United and Mohamed Salah 52 with Liverpool).
Everton remain without James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam for this one, while Dwight McNeil was absent last time out against Arsenal with a knee injury. Armando Broja misses out against his parent club, and Youssef Chermiti is not expected to feature just yet.
Marc Cucurella is suspended for Chelsea, who are also without Mykhailo Mudryk after a provisional suspension by the FA for failing a drugs test – the Ukraine winger has vehemently denied any wrongdoing. Pedro Neto returns from suspension, but Reece James and Wesley Fofana are injured, while it remains to be seen if Benoit Badiashile, Carney Chukwuemeka and Ben Chilwell will be available.
Everton vs Chelsea Head-to-HeadEverton actually have a healthy home record against Chelsea in recent times, winning five of their past six at Goodison against the Blues – the one defeat in that time coming in a 1-0 reverse in August 2022.
That represents as many wins as Everton have secured in their previous 17 home league attempts against Chelsea (D4 L8).
However, the most recent encounter between the teams resulted in a 6-0 rout for Chelsea last April, a match in which Palmer scored four times.
They have not managed to beat Everton in consecutive fixtures since a run of three between November 2016 and August 2017, though.
Everton vs Chelsea PredictionDespite their indifferent form at Goodison in recent years, Chelsea are still ranked as the obvious favourites with the supercomputer and came out on top in 54.0% of the 10,000 simulations conducted.
Everton still have a reasonable chance, triumphing 23.5% of the time, with the draw occurring on 22.5% of occasions.
Chelsea are currently occupying second spot in the table and have a 30.2% chance of remaining there come May. They are most likely to finish third (37.2%), while they have a 5.8% chance to win the title.
Sean Dyche’s side are in 16th place and the predictor has them finishing exactly there, with a 35.4% probability of that happening.
Everton vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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