Champions League projections: All the key talking points ahead of ...

The Bundesliga and La Liga will take centre stage on Matchday 3 of the Champions League as Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund head to Spain to take on Barcelona and Real Madrid.

All four teams emerged victorious in league action over the weekend. Barcelona and Bayern both recorded four-goal victory margins, while Dortmund and Real edged their opponents by identical 2-1 scorelines, which will only raise the anticipation levels ahead of an enticing slate of games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Using The Athletic’s Opta-powered projections, we look at five fixtures that could shift the needle in the 36-team table.

Click the link below to see the complete projections for the 2024-25 league stage.

Barcelona vs Bayern Munich (Wednesday 8pm BST/3pm ET)

This match offers an opportunity for one heavyweight to improve their hopes of a top-eight finish while significantly denting the other’s as both teams enter with three points from two matches.

Barcelona began their Champions League sojourn with a 2-1 defeat at Monaco before thrashing Young Boys 5-0 at home on Matchday 2. Bayern, on the other hand, broke numerous records in their 9-2 mauling of Dinamo Zagreb at home before losing 1-0 away to Aston Villa last time out.

Before the tournament’s start, both teams boasted over 50 per cent probability of directly qualifying for the last 16. However, the first two results have left Barcelona’s chances of making the top eight at 38 per cent and Bayern’s at 46 per cent. This is arguably the toughest fixture of the league stage for both teams, so a win for either could prove pivotal.

There are also some intriguing storylines to consider. Hansi Flick managed Bayern to a treble in the 2019-20 season, handing Barcelona an 8-2 thrashing in the Champions League en route. Robert Lewandowski, who should be Barcelona’s biggest scoring threat on Wednesday, scored and assisted in that game.

Barcelona have lost each of their last six meetings with Bayern by an aggregate score of 21-4 since beating them 3-0 in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final back in 2015.

Barcelona’s remaining fixtures: Red Star (A), Brest (H), Dortmund (A), Benfica (A), Atalanta (H)

Bayern’s remaining fixtures: Benfica (H), PSG (H), Shakhtar (A), Feyenoord (A), Slovan Bratislava (H)

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund (Tuesday 8pm BST/3pm ET)

A replay of last season’s Champions League final presents Dortmund with the chance to exact revenge — albeit in hostile territory.

Dortmund soared to second place in The Athletic’s projections table after beating Club Bruges and Celtic by a combined 10-1 on aggregate. It means they now have a league-high 72 per cent chance of directly qualifying for the last 16 (having started with 41 per cent).

Real, on the other hand, began the tournament with a 74 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight and 18 per cent chance of repeating as champions. However, those percentages are down to 57 and 13 respectively after a 1-0 defeat to Lille on Matchday 2 (they beat Stuttgart 3-1 in their opener).

While you can never count Carlo Ancelotti’s side out of the tournament, defeat here could bring some concern with fixtures against Liverpool and Milan to come. Dortmund, meanwhile, have a much more forgiving slate after this one, barring a visit from Barcelona.

Dortmund, who sit seventh in the Bundesliga, have injuries to contend with as well, with Karim Adeyemi, Gio Reyna, Niklas Sule, Yan Couto, and Julien Duranville all likely to miss Tuesday’s match.

Real Madrid’s remaining fixtures: Milan (H), Liverpool (A), Atalanta (A), Salzburg (H), Brest (A)

Borussia Dortmund’s remaining fixtures: Sturm Graz (H), Zagreb (A), Barcelona (H), Bologna (A), Shakhtar (H)

Atletico Madrid vs Lille (Wednesday 20:00 BST/15:00 ET)

Having slain one Madrid giant, Lille head to the Spanish capital in the hopes of a repeat.

The Ligue 1 side’s win over Real courtesy of Jonathan David’s penalty saw them rise from 28th in the pre-tournament projections to 21st. Lille had a 43 per cent chance of making it into the playoff round before Matchday 1, but that has now risen to 62 per cent. With games against Juventus and Liverpool, even a point here would be invaluable.

Atletico, meanwhile, left it late to beat Leipzig 2-1 in their opener but were thrashed 4-0 by Benfica on Matchday 2. They now have just a 23 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight (down from 41 per cent after Matchday 1). However, they still have a 67 per cent chance of finishing between eighth and 24th due to a favourable fixture list. Victory here should put them firmly back in the race for the top eight, especially if one or both of their fellow Spanish giants drop points.

Atletico Madrid’s remaining fixtures: PSG (A), Sparta Prague (A), Slovan Bratislava (H), Leverkusen (H), Salzburg (A)

Lille’s remaining fixtures: Juventus (H), Bologna (A), Sturm Graz (H), Liverpool (A), Feyenoord (H)

Brest vs Bayer Leverkusen (Wednesday 5.45pm BST/12.45pm ET)

This may not have been a highly anticipated clash when the fixtures for Matchday 3 were released, but this battle between two of the seven teams yet to drop a point promises to be interesting.

Brest – as The Athletic outlined after Matchday 2 — have seen a monumental rise in the projection table after wins at home to Sturm Graz (2-1) and away to Salzburg (4-0). Their chances of qualifying for the playoff round have doubled from 35 per cent pre-tournament to 71 per cent now. A point or three here — the first of three major tests in this league stage — would be invaluable.

Leverkusen, meanwhile, have stuttered a bit in the Bundesliga, shipping 13 goals already after letting in only 24 in the whole of last season. However, Xabi Alonso’s men have kept clean sheets in both Champions League games (4-0 vs Feyenoord and 1-0 vs Milan) and sit atop the projected points table with 17. With at least three of their remaining five fixtures after this promising to be tricky, they may just be a little more desperate for the win than their French counterparts.

Brest’s remaining fixtures: Sparta Prague (A), Barcelona (A), PSV (H), Shakhtar (A), Real Madrid (H)

Bayer Leverkusen’s remaining fixtures: Liverpool (A), Salzburg (H), Inter (H), Atletico (A), Sparta Prague (H)

RB Leipzig vs Liverpool (Wednesday 8pm BST/3pm ET)

While Dortmund and Leverkusen have kept the German flag flying high in the Champions League, Leipzig have struggled. They do, however, boast the second-best defence in Europe’s top five leagues, having let in just two goals in seven Bundesliga games. They are only behind Juventus (one goal conceded in Serie A) and just ahead of their Wednesday opponents Liverpool, who have allowed just three goals in eight Premier League matches.

Bad luck and finishing games poorly can partially explain Leipzig’s struggles in Europe as they conceded winners in the 90th and 82nd minutes against Atletico and 10-man Juventus. However, failing to take even a point at home to Thiago Motta’s side in Matchweek 2 could hurt them.

Leipzig began the tournament with a 29 per cent chance of a top-eight finish, but that now stands at just four per cent. Their chances of making the playoff round, though, remain at 54 per cent thanks to a couple of winnable fixtures in the months ahead, but a third defeat on the bounce could seriously dent their hopes before the halfway stage.

Liverpool, meanwhile, are in cruise control after beating Milan 3-1 and Bologna 2-0 in their first two matches. They have a 44 per cent chance of directly qualifying for the last 16 and have the same projected points tally as Arsenal and Real Madrid (16) and are just one adrift of Leverkusen and Dortmund (17).

Arne Slot’s side enter this match as firm favourites, with a win setting them up nicely for fixtures against Leverkusen and Real Madrid at Anfield on Matchdays 4 and 5.

Leipzig’s remaining fixtures: Celtic (A), Inter (A), Aston Villa (H), Sporting (H), Sturm Graz (A)

Liverpool’s remaining fixtures: Leverkusen (H), Real Madrid (H), Girona (A), Lille (H), PSV (A)

Best of the rest

According to Opta’s Power Rankings, Paris Saint-Germain were handed the toughest schedule of any team in this season’s competition, with matches against Atletico, Bayern, and Manchester City still to come after this week. Anything less than a win at home to PSV on Tuesday and alarm bells may begin ringing in the French capital.

Aston Villa’s win over Bayern will stick in fans’ memories for a long time, but this new Champions League format demands consistency. Bologna, who have won just one of their 10 matches across competitions this season, could be the ideal opponents for Unai Emery’s high-flying side to build on that Matchday 2 success.

Arsenal have what should be their most straightforward match of the league stage as they take on Shakhtar Donetsk at the Emirates Stadium. The Ukrainian side were projected to have an 81 per cent chance of elimination before the competition began — but after taking just one point from their opening two matches that figure has risen to 90 per cent.

Elsewhere, Girona host Slovan Bratislava as both teams look to get their first win of the tournament. This could be an unexpected goal fest, with Girona conceding three own goals in two matches while Bratislava have let in nine goals in two matches.

Salzburg — also searching for their first points — could overtake fellow Red Bull club Leipzig in the standings if they pick up points off Dinamo Zagreb and Leipzig lose to Liverpool. Should both teams lose in their first European match since Jurgen Klopp’s appointment as head of global soccer, you suspect there will be smiles on the faces of Dortmund fans.

(Top photos: Getty Images)