Partner Content | Celtics vs. Heat picks and odds, Game 3: Back ...

After winning both road games to start the series, the Miami Heat have an opportunity to put the Boston Celtics in an 0-3 hole on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Miami has thrived as an underdog all postseason and finds itself in that position — at least odds-wise — in Game 3. We’re backing the Heat to cover the spread at home and are also taking the under on the first quarter total.

Here are our Celtics vs. Heat picks for Game 3 on May 21.

NBA odds as of 11:19 a.m. on 05/20/2023.

Best Bet : Miami +3.5 points (-114)

Heat culture is real and the Celtics just found that out the hard way.

Miami was a 9-point underdog in Game 1 and a 10-point underdog in Game 2 — Erik Spoelstra’s squad managed to win both those games by an average of 6.5 points. The Heat have now covered the spread in 10 of 13 postseason games and are tied for a playoff-best 10-3 record as of Saturday afternoon.

Nothing can seem to slow this team down and we’re content to back it as a home dog on Sunday.

The Heat have been a perfect 5-0 at home this postseason and have covered the spread in all but one of those games (May 12 vs. Knicks). They also own the second-best defensive rating (102.7) and the third-best net rating (+11.4) at home in the playoffs.

Shutting down Boston’s offence has been the key to this series and we don’t see why that can’t continue down in South Beach. The Celtics had the third-best offensive rating in the regular season and currently rank second in the playoffs. They scored 105 and 116 points in the first two games of this series.

In reality, finding offence has been a struggle for Boston over the last few games. The Celtics are averaging just 106.2 PPG in their past five games.

Key stat: Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a win.

First quarter under 52.5 points (-113) : Miami might not be the more talented team but it’s consistently found ways to get an edge over its opponents. This may be a tad narrative-based but the Heat have a chance to mentally break the Celtics with a dogged defensive performance out of the gate.

It’s been Spoelstra’s calling card all postseason and there would be no reason for the Heat to take their foot off the gas at home.

Three of Boston’s last four games have gone under this total, too.

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