Aston Villa vs Brighton predictions: Premier League tips and odds

30 Sep 2023

Telegraph.co.uk

Our betting expert has three Aston Villa vs Brighton tips for the Premier League game at Villa Park on Saturday (12.30pm kick-off). Scroll down to see the analysis behind his selections.

Aston Villa vs Brighton betting tips Aston Villa to win @ 29/20 with Sky BetBrighton 5+ offsides @ 6/4 with Sky BetBuildABet: Aston Villa to score 2+ goals, Solly March 2+ fouls and Aston Villa 12+ fouls @ 11/2 BuildABet with Sky Bet

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Villans going for 10 in a row at home

Aston Villa will be attempting to win their 10th Premier League home game in a row – a remarkable feat for any team in this era.

Unai Emery’s men won their final seven league matches at Villa Park last season, beating good sides such as Newcastle and Brighton along the way, and have defeated both Everton and Crystal Palace at home in the current campaign.

Some will be wary of opposing a Seagulls team that performed so impressively on their previous away league assignment at Old Trafford, but Albion’s form on the road has been very hit-and-miss under Roberto De Zerbi.

Brighton lost four of their final six away games last campaign and went down 1-0 in the Carabao Cup at Chelsea in midweek to the same opponents that Villa had beaten there a few days before.

Aston Villa vs Brighton tip 1: Aston Villa to win @ 29/20 with Sky Bet

Seagulls could be caught in Emery’s offside trap

Villa’s high defensive line has been a feature of their play under Emery and it certainly caught the Blues out last weekend as their players ran offside time and time again.

The assistant referees’ flags were raised a total of 10 times when Chelsea were attacking – and Brighton will have to be very aware of Villa’s back line pushing up on Saturday.

Last season, the Villans’ tally of 116 offsides against was higher than any other outfit in the Premier League. Emery’s team have already accumulated 24 offsides against so far this term – at least five more than any other team.

Aston Villa vs Brighton tip 2: Brighton 5+ offsides @ 6/4 with Sky Bet

Villa’s trend for multiple home goals can continue

The West Midlanders have scored at least twice in 10 of their past 12 home Premier League games and there should be chances for them to continue that trend against a Seagulls side that have shipped multiple goals in 10 of 18 away trips under De Zerbi.

This contest is unlikely to be all blood and thunder, with the tactical ideas of the two coaches providing the framework for a classic game of chess on the football pitch.

But there should still be a reasonable amount of fouls committed, particularly in a congested midfield area where both teams will be desperate to deny their opponent any time on the ball.

Solly March, who was replaced after 45 minutes against Chelsea in a sign that he could be in line to start on Saturday, has committed the most fouls of any Brighton player this season and can hit the 2+ target here for a third consecutive Premier League game.

The two teams’ possession stats this season suggest Brighton will have the lion’s share here and Villa may rack up a few more fouls than the visitors as a result.

The Villans have committed an average of just over 11 per game in the Premier League so far this term, but have not yet faced a team who dominate possession as much as Brighton.

Aston Villa vs Brighton tip 3: BuildABet: Aston Villa to score 2+ goals, Solly March 2+ fouls and Aston Villa 12+ fouls @ 11/2 BuildABet with Sky Bet

Aston Villa vs Brighton odds Aston Villa @ 29/20 with Sky BetDraw @ 14/5 with Sky BetBrighton @ 8/5 with Sky Bet

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aston Villa team news

Leon Bailey is out with a thigh strain and will miss the fixture while Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings remain long-term absentees.

Aston Villa predicted line-up (4-4-2): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Zaniolo, Kamara, Luiz, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins

Brighton team news

Julio Enciso and Jakub Moder are out while Evan Ferguson and Pascal Gross are doubts for the fixture and could be missing.

Brighton predicted line-up (4-2-3-1): Steele; Lamptey, Webster, Dunk, Estupinan; Gilmour, Dahoud; March, Fati, Mitoma; Pedro

Last five results Aston Villa

September 27 CC Aston Villa 1 Everton 2 L

September 24 PL Chelsea 0 Aston Villa 1 W

September 21 ECL Legia Warsaw 3 Aston Villa 2 L